Wake Forest at Miami Week 13 College Football Matchup Wake Forest at Miami Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL · Turf · 65,326 cap
Wake Forest✈ 702 miSame TZ
14 42
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wake Forest
18
Miami
47
P&R Line Miami -29
P&R Total O/U 64.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami -23.5 · O/U 67.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Miami wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Miami wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami -23.5
O/U 67.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Miami Coming off BYE 🚌 Wake Forest 2nd straight Road Game
Wake Forest 2024 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T-20.5
Sat 9/7Wake Forest vs Virginia+1.5L30–3155.5L30–31OY
Sat 9/14Wake Forest vs Ole Miss+20.5L6–4065.5L6–40UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Wake Forest vs Louisiana-3.0L38–4159.5L38–41ON
Sat 10/5Wake Forest at NC State+4.0W34–3052.5W34–30OY
Sat 10/12Wake Forest vs Clemson+21.0L14–4963.0L14–49UN
Sat 10/19Wake Forest at UConn-2.5W23–2055.5W23–20UY
Sat 10/26Wake Forest at Stanford-3.0W27–2453.0W27–24UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8Wake Forest vs California+7.5L36–4654.5L36–46ON
Sat 11/16Wake Forest at North Carolina+10.5L24–3164.5L24–31UY
Sat 11/23Wake Forest at Miami+23.5L14–4267.0L14–42UN
Sat 11/30Wake Forest vs Duke+3.5L17–2353.5L17–23UN
Miami 2024 Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami at Florida-2.5W41–1754.5W41–17OY
Sat 9/7Miami vs Florida A&M-46.5W56–955.5W56–9OY
Sat 9/14Miami vs Ball State-36.5W62–055.5W62–0OY
Sat 9/21Miami at South Florida-17.0W50–1564.5W50–15OY
Fri 9/27Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.5W38–3455.5W38–34ON
Sat 10/5Miami at California-10.0W39–3854.0W39–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Miami at Louisville-4.5W52–4561.5W52–45OY
Sat 10/26Miami vs Florida State-22.5W36–1455.0W36–14UN
Sat 11/2Miami vs Duke-21.0W53–3155.5W53–31OY
Sat 11/9Miami at Georgia Tech-9.5L23–2864.5L23–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Miami vs Wake Forest-23.5W42–1467.0W42–14UY
Sat 11/30Miami at Syracuse-12.5L38–4265.5L38–42ON
Sat 12/28Miami vs Iowa State-5.0L41–4262.0L41–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wake Forest #104
+0.294
Miami #2
+0.672
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #83
+0.457
Miami #6
+0.821
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #130
0.120
Miami #39
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #121
+7.218
Miami #2
+9.077
Miami Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wake Forest #81
+0.801
Miami #1
+1.032
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wake Forest #71
71.0
Miami #55
70.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wake Forest
4.6
Miami
24.1
Offense Rating
Wake Forest
16.6
Miami
27.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wake Forest
12.0
Miami
2.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Wake Forest #106
0.67
Miami #2
2.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #79
1.11
Miami #35
0.89
Miami +2.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wake Forest #1
38.1
Miami #1
58.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #90
45.0
Miami #16
25.7
Miami +20.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Miami
64.7 — 16.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami won by 28
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
63–61 (51%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Warren Ruggiero Yr 3 #1
DC Brad Lambert Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
12–13 (48%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 2 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself