Memphis at South Florida Week 7 College Football Matchup Memphis at South Florida Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Camping World Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 65,000 cap
Memphis✈ 677 mi+1 hr TZ South Florida✈ 77 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
21 3
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Memphis
36
South Florida
26
P&R Line Memphis -10
P&R Total O/U 61.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Memphis -10 · O/U 61.0
Matchup Prediction
Memphis has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Memphis entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Memphis wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Memphis wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Memphis -10
O/U 61.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 South Florida Coming off BYE 🛋 Memphis Coming off BYE
Memphis 2024 Schedule
Memphis's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Memphis vs North Alabama-38.5W40–062.5W40–0UY
Sat 9/7Memphis vs Troy-18.5W38–1757.5W38–17UY
Sat 9/14Memphis at Florida State+7.0W20–1252.0W20–12UY
Sat 9/21Memphis at Navy-9.5L44–5647.0L44–56ON
Sat 9/28Memphis vs Middle Tennessee-27.0W24–762.0W24–7UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Memphis vs South Florida-10.0W21–361.0W21–3UY
Sat 10/19Memphis vs North Texas-10.5W52–4467.5W52–44ON
Sat 10/26Memphis vs Charlotte-17.0W33–2856.5W33–28ON
Sat 11/2Memphis at UTSA-7.0L36–4462.0L36–44ON
Fri 11/8Memphis vs Rice-7.5W27–2050.5W27–20UN
Sat 11/16Memphis vs UAB-16.0W53–1862.0W53–18OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/28Memphis at Tulane+12.5W34–2454.5W34–24OY
Tue 12/17Memphis vs West Virginia-5.0W42–3760.0W42–37ON
South Florida 2024 Schedule
South Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman-22.5
Sat 9/7South Florida at Alabama+33.5L16–4265.5L16–42UY
Sat 9/14South Florida at Southern Miss-13.0W49–2458.5W49–24OY
Sat 9/21South Florida vs Miami+17.0L15–5064.5L15–50ON
Sat 9/28South Florida at Tulane+4.0L10–4560.5L10–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12South Florida vs Memphis+10.0L3–2161.0L3–21UN
Sat 10/19South Florida vs UAB-14.0W35–2555.5W35–25ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1South Florida at Florida Atlantic-1.5W44–2148.0W44–21OY
Sat 11/9South Florida vs Navy+4.5L7–2859.5L7–28UN
Sat 11/16South Florida at Charlotte+1.5W59–2453.5W59–24OY
Sat 11/23South Florida vs Tulsa-17.5W63–3060.0W63–30OY
Sat 11/30South Florida at Rice-5.5L28–3553.5L28–35ON
Tue 12/24South Florida vs San José State-1.5W41–3966.5W41–39OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Memphis #23
+0.434
South Florida #83
+0.359
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #42
+0.592
South Florida #113
+0.410
Memphis Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Memphis #11
0.199
South Florida #15
0.197
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Memphis Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #14
+8.655
South Florida #74
+7.926
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Memphis #57
+0.828
South Florida #118
+0.783
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Memphis #12
67.7
South Florida #32
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Memphis Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Memphis
3.1
South Florida
1.9
Offense Rating
Memphis
16.9
South Florida
18.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Memphis
13.7
South Florida
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Memphis Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Memphis #11
1.50
South Florida #75
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #65
1.00
South Florida #106
2.50
Memphis +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Memphis #1
68.2
South Florida #1
37.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #4
18.5
South Florida #108
48.1
Memphis +30.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Memphis with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
31–19 (62%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 3 #1
DC Jordon Hankins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Joel Gordon Yr 2 #1
DC Todd Orlando Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself