Matchup Prediction
Tulane
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tulane entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Tulane wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Tulane wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Tulane -12.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Tulane
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Memphis 2024 Schedule
Memphis's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Memphis vs North Alabama | -38.5W40–0 | 62.5 | W40–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Memphis vs Troy | -18.5W38–17 | 57.5 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Memphis at Florida State | +7.0W20–12 | 52.0 | W20–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Memphis at Navy | -9.5L44–56 | 47.0 | L44–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Memphis vs Middle Tennessee | -27.0W24–7 | 62.0 | W24–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Memphis vs South Florida | -10.0W21–3 | 61.0 | W21–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Memphis vs North Texas | -10.5W52–44 | 67.5 | W52–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Memphis vs Charlotte | -17.0W33–28 | 56.5 | W33–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Memphis at UTSA | -7.0L36–44 | 62.0 | L36–44 | O | N |
| Fri 11/8 | Memphis vs Rice | -7.5W27–20 | 50.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Memphis vs UAB | -16.0W53–18 | 62.0 | W53–18 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/28 | Memphis at Tulane | +12.5W34–24 | 54.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/17 | Memphis vs West Virginia | -5.0W42–37 | 60.0 | W42–37 | O | N |
Tulane 2024 Schedule
Tulane's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Tulane vs SE Louisiana | -28.5W52–0 | 55.5 | W52–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Tulane vs Kansas State | +8.5L27–34 | 47.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Tulane at Oklahoma | +13.5L19–34 | 48.5 | L19–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Tulane at Louisiana | -1.5W41–33 | 53.5 | W41–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Tulane vs South Florida | -4.0W45–10 | 60.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Tulane at UAB | -19.5W71–20 | 52.0 | W71–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Tulane vs Rice | -21.5W24–10 | 53.5 | W24–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Tulane at North Texas | -7.5W45–37 | 70.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/31 | Tulane at Charlotte | -14.5W34–3 | 55.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Tulane vs Temple | -25.5W52–6 | 50.5 | W52–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Tulane at Navy | -7.5W35–0 | 49.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/28 | Tulane vs Memphis | -12.5L24–34 | 54.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Tulane at Army | -4.5L14–35 | 46.5 | L14–35 | O | N |
| Fri 12/20 | Tulane vs Florida | +10.0L8–33 | 50.5 | L8–33 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulane
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +4.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Memphis
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Memphis
10.7 — 73.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Memphis won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tulane, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
31–19 (62%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Tim Cramsey
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jordon Hankins
Yr 1
#1
Tulane
Jon Sumrall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Greg Gasparato
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓