Sat, Aug 31 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
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Turf
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23,595 cap
Western Illinois✈ 141 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Northern Illinois wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -36.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Western Illinois 2024 Schedule
Western Illinois's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Western Illinois at Northern Illinois | +36.5L15–54 | 55.5 | L15–54 | O | N |
| Fri 9/6 | Western Illinois at Indiana | +44.5L3–77 | 52.5 | L3–77 | O | N |
Northern Illinois 2024 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois | -36.5W54–15 | 55.5 | W54–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Northern Illinois at Notre Dame | +28.5W16–14 | 46.5 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Northern Illinois vs Buffalo | -13.0L20–23 | 42.5 | L20–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Northern Illinois at NC State | +7.0L17–24 | 46.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts | -14.0W34–20 | 41.0 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Northern Illinois at Bowling Green | +3.0W17–7 | 46.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Northern Illinois vs Toledo | -3.0L6–13 | 42.5 | L6–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Northern Illinois at Ball State | -13.5L23–25 | 47.5 | L23–25 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Northern Illinois at Western Michigan | -2.5W42–28 | 51.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/13 | Northern Illinois vs Akron | -14.0W29–16 | 43.5 | W29–16 | O | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) | +1.5L9–20 | 43.0 | L9–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan | -16.5W24–16 | 41.5 | W24–16 | U | N |
| Mon 12/23 | Northern Illinois vs Fresno State | -2.0W28–20 | 41.0 | W28–20 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Illinois Edge
Western Illinois +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +28.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓