Northern Illinois at Fresno State Week 1 College Football Matchup Northern Illinois at Fresno State Matchup - Week 1
Mon, Dec 23 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Albertsons Stadium Boise, ID · Turf · 36,387 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 1,389 mi-1 hr TZ Fresno State✈ 505 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
28 20
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northern Illinois
23
Fresno State
21
P&R Line Northern Illinois -2
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Northern Illinois -2 · O/U 41.0
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -2
O/U 41.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Northern Illinois · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2024 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois-36.5W54–1555.5W54–15OY
Sat 9/7Northern Illinois at Notre Dame+28.5W16–1446.5W16–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Northern Illinois vs Buffalo-13.0L20–2342.5L20–23ON
Sat 9/28Northern Illinois at NC State+7.0L17–2446.0L17–24UY
Sat 10/5Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts-14.0W34–2041.0W34–20ON
Sat 10/12Northern Illinois at Bowling Green+3.0W17–746.5W17–7UY
Sat 10/19Northern Illinois vs Toledo-3.0L6–1342.5L6–13UN
Sat 10/26Northern Illinois at Ball State-13.5L23–2547.5L23–25ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Northern Illinois at Western Michigan-2.5W42–2851.5W42–28OY
Wed 11/13Northern Illinois vs Akron-14.0W29–1643.5W29–16ON
Tue 11/19Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)+1.5L9–2043.0L9–20UN
Sat 11/30Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan-16.5W24–1641.5W24–16UN
Mon 12/23Northern Illinois vs Fresno State-2.0W28–2041.0W28–20OY
Fresno State 2024 Schedule
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Fresno State at Michigan+21.0L10–3048.0L10–30UY
Sat 9/7Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.5W46–3055.5W46–30ON
Sat 9/14Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.5W48–048.5W48–0UY
Sat 9/21Fresno State at New Mexico-12.0W38–2161.0W38–21UY
Sat 9/28Fresno State at UNLV+2.5L14–5951.0L14–59ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Fresno State vs Washington State+3.5L17–2560.5L17–25UN
Fri 10/18Fresno State at Nevada-3.0W24–2150.0W24–21UN
Sat 10/26Fresno State vs San José State-6.5W33–1055.0W33–10UY
Sat 11/2Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.0L20–2145.5L20–21UN
Sat 11/9Fresno State at Air Force-9.5L28–3640.5L28–36ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.5W28–2243.5W28–22OY
Sat 11/30Fresno State at UCLA+7.5L13–2046.5L13–20UY
Mon 12/23Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.0L20–2841.0L20–28ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Northern Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northern Illinois #86
+0.243
Fresno State #110
+0.174
Northern Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #84
+0.320
Fresno State #89
+0.256
Northern Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #48
0.174
Fresno State #113
0.136
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Northern Illinois Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #113
+7.017
Fresno State #91
+6.764
Northern Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #79
+0.824
Fresno State #110
+0.769
Northern Illinois Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #37
69.6
Fresno State #32
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Fresno State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Fresno State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northern Illinois
-17.9
Fresno State
2.4
Offense Rating
Northern Illinois
8.5
Fresno State
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northern Illinois
26.4
Fresno State
12.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Fresno State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Northern Illinois #14
1.00
Fresno State #104
1.18
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #4
0.64
Fresno State #12
0.64
Fresno State +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Fresno State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northern Illinois #1
44.5
Fresno State #1
49.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #70
36.9
Fresno State #38
32.7
Fresno State +5.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Fresno State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
24–33 (42%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Wesley Beschorner Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
45–22 (67%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Pat McCann Yr 2 #1
DC Kevin Coyle Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself