Sat, Sep 28 2024
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Tiger Stadium
Baton Rouge, LA
·
Turf
·
102,321 cap
South Alabama✈ 187 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
South Alabama wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
LSU -21
O/U 64.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → South Alabama
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2024 Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Alabama vs North Texas | -6.0L38–52 | 61.5 | L38–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | South Alabama at Ohio | -1.5L20–27 | 55.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Thu 9/12 | South Alabama vs Northwestern State | -36.5W87–10 | 60.5 | W87–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/19 | South Alabama at App State | +8.0W48–14 | 62.5 | W48–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | South Alabama at LSU | +21.0L10–42 | 64.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | South Alabama at Arkansas State | -2.5L16–18 | 62.5 | L16–18 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/15 | South Alabama vs Troy | -10.0W25–9 | 53.0 | W25–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | South Alabama vs UL Monroe | -7.0W46–17 | 45.0 | W46–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -5.5L30–34 | 60.0 | L30–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | South Alabama at Louisiana | +6.5W24–22 | 60.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | South Alabama at Southern Miss | -24.0W35–14 | 54.0 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | South Alabama vs Texas State | +2.5L38–45 | 60.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/14 | South Alabama vs Western Michigan | -6.0W30–23 | 53.5 | W30–23 | U | Y |
LSU 2024 Schedule
LSU's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/1 | LSU vs USC | -4.0L20–27 | 66.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | LSU vs Nicholls | -50.5W44–21 | 62.0 | W44–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | LSU at South Carolina | -7.0W36–33 | 50.0 | W36–33 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | LSU vs UCLA | -21.5W34–17 | 56.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | LSU vs South Alabama | -21.0W42–10 | 64.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | LSU vs Ole Miss | +3.5W29–26 | 64.5 | W29–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | LSU at Arkansas | -3.0W34–10 | 57.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | LSU at Texas A&M | +2.0L23–38 | 54.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | LSU vs Alabama | +2.5L13–42 | 57.5 | L13–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | LSU at Florida | -3.0L16–27 | 57.0 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | LSU vs Vanderbilt | -10.0W24–17 | 53.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | LSU vs Oklahoma | -4.5W37–17 | 47.5 | W37–17 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | LSU vs Baylor | +3.0W44–31 | 62.5 | W44–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +10.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
LSU
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
LSU
96.5 — 2.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
LSU won by 32
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Alabama. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 1
#1
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
20–7 (74%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Baker
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓