Troy at South Alabama Week 8 College Football Matchup Troy at South Alabama Matchup - Week 8
Tue, Oct 15 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile, AL · Turf · 25,000 cap
Troy✈ 625 miSame TZ
Away
9 25
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Troy
22
USA -10
South Alabama
35
P&R Line South Alabama -12.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 86 High
Vegas South Alabama -10 · O/U 53.0
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -10
O/U 53.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → South Alabama · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 South Alabama Coming off BYE 🛋 Troy Coming off BYE
Troy 2024 Schedule
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Troy vs Nevada-7.5L26–2844.5L26–28ON
Sat 9/7Troy at Memphis+18.5L17–3857.5L17–38UN
Sat 9/14Troy at Iowa+23.5L21–3839.5L21–38OY
Sat 9/21Troy vs Florida A&M-21.5W34–1248.5W34–12UY
Sat 9/28Troy vs UL Monroe-6.0L9–1346.0L9–13UN
Thu 10/3Troy vs Texas State+14.5L17–3856.0L17–38UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Troy at South Alabama+10.0L9–2553.0L9–25UN
Sat 10/26Troy at Arkansas State+8.5L31–3450.0L31–34OY
Sat 11/2Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.0W38–2452.0W38–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Troy at Georgia Southern+7.0W28–2054.0W28–20UY
Sat 11/23Troy at Louisiana+7.5L30–5151.5L30–51ON
Sat 11/30Troy vs Southern Miss-17.5W52–2048.5W52–20OY
South Alabama 2024 Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Alabama vs North Texas-6.0L38–5261.5L38–52ON
Sat 9/7South Alabama at Ohio-1.5L20–2755.5L20–27UN
Thu 9/12South Alabama vs Northwestern State-36.5W87–1060.5W87–10OY
Thu 9/19South Alabama at App State+8.0W48–1462.5W48–14UY
Sat 9/28South Alabama at LSU+21.0L10–4264.5L10–42UN
Sat 10/5South Alabama at Arkansas State-2.5L16–1862.5L16–18UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15South Alabama vs Troy-10.0W25–953.0W25–9UY
Sat 10/26South Alabama vs UL Monroe-7.0W46–1745.0W46–17OY
Sat 11/2South Alabama vs Georgia Southern-5.5L30–3460.0L30–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16South Alabama at Louisiana+6.5W24–2260.0W24–22UY
Sat 11/23South Alabama at Southern Miss-24.0W35–1454.0W35–14UN
Fri 11/29South Alabama vs Texas State+2.5L38–4560.5L38–45ON
Sat 12/14South Alabama vs Western Michigan-6.0W30–2353.5W30–23UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
South Alabama PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Troy #50
+0.374
South Alabama #5
+0.520
South Alabama Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Troy #25
+0.598
South Alabama #27
+0.610
South Alabama Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Troy #60
0.166
South Alabama #70
0.159
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Troy Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Troy #22
+8.093
South Alabama #13
+8.436
South Alabama Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Troy #49
+0.852
South Alabama #9
+0.931
South Alabama Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Troy #118
73.0
South Alabama #65
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Alabama Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
South Alabama Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Troy
-12.1
South Alabama
-11.8
Offense Rating
Troy
9.7
South Alabama
8.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Troy
21.8
South Alabama
20.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? South Alabama Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Troy #96
0.20
South Alabama #28
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #100
1.40
South Alabama #72
0.60
South Alabama +1.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? South Alabama Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Troy #1
27.6
South Alabama #1
44.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #96
50.5
South Alabama #62
41.7
South Alabama +16.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Alabama
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
South Alabama
74.5 — 9.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
South Alabama won by 16
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on South Alabama with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Troy
Gerad Parker #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Reagan Yr 1 #1
DC Nathan Burton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rob Ezell Yr 1 #1
DC Will Windham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself