Old Dominion at App State Week 10 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at App State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 2 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium Boone, NC · Turf · 24,050 cap
Old Dominion✈ 302 miSame TZ
20 28
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
29
App State
28
P&R Line Old Dominion -1
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Old Dominion -2.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Old Dominion has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Old Dominion entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -2.5
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Old Dominion · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 App State 2nd straight Home Game
Old Dominion 2024 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Old Dominion at South Carolina+20.5L19–2349.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/7Old Dominion vs East Carolina-1.5L14–2053.5L14–20UN
Sat 9/14Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech+15.5L17–3747.5L17–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Old Dominion at Bowling Green+11.0W30–2751.5W30–27OY
Sat 10/5Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina+4.0L37–4551.5L37–45ON
Sat 10/12Old Dominion at Georgia State+3.0W21–1453.0W21–14UY
Sat 10/19Old Dominion vs Texas State+10.5W24–1460.0W24–14UY
Thu 10/24Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern+1.0W47–1952.0W47–19OY
Sat 11/2Old Dominion at App State-2.5L20–2858.0L20–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Old Dominion vs James Madison+1.5L32–3551.0L32–35ON
Sat 11/23Old Dominion vs Marshall-3.0L35–4251.0L35–42ON
Sat 11/30Old Dominion at Arkansas State-5.5W40–3258.5W40–32OY
App State 2024 Schedule
App State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31App State vs East Tennessee State-35.5W38–1058.5W38–10UN
Sat 9/7App State at Clemson+13.5L20–6653.5L20–66ON
Sat 9/14App State at East Carolina+0.5W21–1956.5W21–19UY
Thu 9/19App State vs South Alabama-8.0L14–4862.5L14–48UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5App State at Marshall+3.0L37–5256.5L37–52ON
Sat 10/12App State at Louisiana+10.0L24–3464.0L24–34UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26App State vs Georgia State-7.5W33–2659.0W33–26UN
Sat 11/2App State vs Old Dominion+2.5W28–2058.0W28–20UY
Thu 11/7App State at Coastal Carolina-1.5L24–3862.5L24–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23App State vs James Madison+7.5W34–2057.5W34–20UY
Sat 11/30App State at Georgia Southern+2.5L20–2960.5L20–29UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Old Dominion PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion #47
+0.520
App State #57
+0.380
Old Dominion Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #61
+0.634
App State #41
+0.602
Old Dominion Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #68
0.160
App State #132
0.116
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Old Dominion Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion #6
+9.528
App State #71
+7.534
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #71
+0.914
App State #60
+0.824
Old Dominion Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion #108
72.7
App State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
App State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
0.3
App State
-9.7
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
14.4
App State
9.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.2
App State
18.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Old Dominion Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #32
1.13
App State #101
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #31
0.63
App State #116
2.00
Old Dominion +0.79
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Old Dominion Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
41.3
App State #1
27.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #71
38.5
App State #123
59.0
Old Dominion +14.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Old Dominion with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
15–23 (40%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 2 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
App State
Shawn Clark #1
35–18 (66%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Frank Ponce Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Sloan Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself