Sat, Aug 31 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, NC
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Turf
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24,050 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
App State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
App State -35.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
East Tennessee State 2024 Schedule
East Tennessee State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | East Tennessee State at App State | +35.5L10–38 | 58.5 | L10–38 | U | Y |
App State 2024 Schedule
App State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | App State vs East Tennessee State | -35.5W38–10 | 58.5 | W38–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | App State at Clemson | +13.5L20–66 | 53.5 | L20–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | App State at East Carolina | +0.5W21–19 | 56.5 | W21–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/19 | App State vs South Alabama | -8.0L14–48 | 62.5 | L14–48 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | App State at Marshall | +3.0L37–52 | 56.5 | L37–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | App State at Louisiana | +10.0L24–34 | 64.0 | L24–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | App State vs Georgia State | -7.5W33–26 | 59.0 | W33–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | App State vs Old Dominion | +2.5W28–20 | 58.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/7 | App State at Coastal Carolina | -1.5L24–38 | 62.5 | L24–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | App State vs James Madison | +7.5W34–20 | 57.5 | W34–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | App State at Georgia Southern | +2.5L20–29 | 60.5 | L20–29 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Tennessee State Edge
East Tennessee State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +32.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓