Sat, Oct 26 2024
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, NC
·
Turf
·
24,050 cap
Georgia State✈ 229 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia State,
while Game Control favors App State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
App State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
App State -7.5
O/U 59.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → App State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia State 2024 Schedule
Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia State at Georgia Tech | +20.5L12–35 | 57.0 | L12–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia State vs Chattanooga | -9.5W24–21 | 51.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia State vs Vanderbilt | +8.5W36–32 | 45.5 | W36–32 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia State vs Georgia Southern | -3.5L21–38 | 57.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia State vs Old Dominion | -3.0L14–21 | 53.0 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Thu 10/17 | Georgia State at Marshall | +9.5L20–35 | 51.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Georgia State at App State | +7.5L26–33 | 59.0 | L26–33 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | Georgia State at UConn | +7.0L27–34 | 48.0 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia State at James Madison | +14.5L7–38 | 53.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -2.5L20–27 | 60.0 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia State at Texas State | +23.0W52–44 | 59.5 | W52–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina | -0.5L27–48 | 52.5 | L27–48 | O | N |
App State 2024 Schedule
App State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | App State vs East Tennessee State | -35.5W38–10 | 58.5 | W38–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | App State at Clemson | +13.5L20–66 | 53.5 | L20–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | App State at East Carolina | +0.5W21–19 | 56.5 | W21–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/19 | App State vs South Alabama | -8.0L14–48 | 62.5 | L14–48 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | App State at Marshall | +3.0L37–52 | 56.5 | L37–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | App State at Louisiana | +10.0L24–34 | 64.0 | L24–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | App State vs Georgia State | -7.5W33–26 | 59.0 | W33–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | App State vs Old Dominion | +2.5W28–20 | 58.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/7 | App State at Coastal Carolina | -1.5L24–38 | 62.5 | L24–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | App State vs James Madison | +7.5W34–20 | 57.5 | W34–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | App State at Georgia Southern | +2.5L20–29 | 60.5 | L20–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ App State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +0.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia State
Dell McGee #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jim Chaney
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Sherrer
Yr 1
#1
App State
Shawn Clark #1
35–18 (66%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Frank Ponce
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scott Sloan
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓