Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
App State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Clemson -13.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Clemson
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
App State 2024 Schedule
App State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | App State vs East Tennessee State | -35.5W38–10 | 58.5 | W38–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | App State at Clemson | +13.5L20–66 | 53.5 | L20–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | App State at East Carolina | +0.5W21–19 | 56.5 | W21–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/19 | App State vs South Alabama | -8.0L14–48 | 62.5 | L14–48 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | App State at Marshall | +3.0L37–52 | 56.5 | L37–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | App State at Louisiana | +10.0L24–34 | 64.0 | L24–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | App State vs Georgia State | -7.5W33–26 | 59.0 | W33–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | App State vs Old Dominion | +2.5W28–20 | 58.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/7 | App State at Coastal Carolina | -1.5L24–38 | 62.5 | L24–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | App State vs James Madison | +7.5W34–20 | 57.5 | W34–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | App State at Georgia Southern | +2.5L20–29 | 60.5 | L20–29 | U | N |
Clemson 2024 Schedule
Clemson's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Clemson vs Georgia | +10.5L3–34 | 49.0 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Clemson vs App State | -13.5W66–20 | 53.5 | W66–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Clemson vs NC State | -17.0W59–35 | 44.0 | W59–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Clemson vs Stanford | -24.0W40–14 | 58.0 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Clemson at Florida State | -16.5W29–13 | 47.0 | W29–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Clemson at Wake Forest | -21.0W49–14 | 63.0 | W49–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Clemson vs Virginia | -20.0W48–31 | 57.5 | W48–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Clemson vs Louisville | -11.0L21–33 | 62.5 | L21–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Clemson at Virginia Tech | -6.5W24–14 | 54.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Clemson at Pittsburgh | -12.0W24–20 | 52.0 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Clemson vs The Citadel | -49.5W51–14 | 58.5 | W51–14 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Clemson vs South Carolina | -2.5L14–17 | 48.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 12/7 | Clemson vs SMU | +2.5W34–31 | 56.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/21 | Clemson at Texas | +13.5L24–38 | 49.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Clemson
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
App State Edge
App State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +88.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Clemson
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Clemson
98.9 — 0.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Clemson won by 46
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
App State
Shawn Clark #1
35–18 (66%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Frank Ponce
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scott Sloan
Yr 2
#1
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
170–43 (80%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Garrett Riley
Yr 2
#1
DC
Mickey Conn
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓