Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, AL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Florida A&M✈ 136 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Troy wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Troy -21.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Florida A&M 2024 Schedule
Florida A&M's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/7 | Florida A&M at Miami | +46.5L9–56 | 55.5 | L9–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Florida A&M at Troy | +21.5L12–34 | 48.5 | L12–34 | U | N |
Troy 2024 Schedule
Troy's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Troy vs Nevada | -7.5L26–28 | 44.5 | L26–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Troy at Memphis | +18.5L17–38 | 57.5 | L17–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Troy at Iowa | +23.5L21–38 | 39.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Troy vs Florida A&M | -21.5W34–12 | 48.5 | W34–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Troy vs UL Monroe | -6.0L9–13 | 46.0 | L9–13 | U | N |
| Thu 10/3 | Troy vs Texas State | +14.5L17–38 | 56.0 | L17–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/15 | Troy at South Alabama | +10.0L9–25 | 53.0 | L9–25 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Troy at Arkansas State | +8.5L31–34 | 50.0 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Troy vs Coastal Carolina | +4.0W38–24 | 52.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Troy at Georgia Southern | +7.0W28–20 | 54.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Troy at Louisiana | +7.5L30–51 | 51.5 | L30–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Troy vs Southern Miss | -17.5W52–20 | 48.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida A&M Edge
Florida A&M +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Troy Edge
Troy +40.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓