Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium
Columbia, SC
·
Turf
·
80,250 cap
Old Dominion✈ 333 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -20.5
O/U 49.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2024 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Old Dominion at South Carolina | +20.5L19–23 | 49.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Old Dominion vs East Carolina | -1.5L14–20 | 53.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech | +15.5L17–37 | 47.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Old Dominion at Bowling Green | +11.0W30–27 | 51.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | +4.0L37–45 | 51.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Old Dominion at Georgia State | +3.0W21–14 | 53.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Old Dominion vs Texas State | +10.5W24–14 | 60.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/24 | Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern | +1.0W47–19 | 52.0 | W47–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Old Dominion at App State | -2.5L20–28 | 58.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Old Dominion vs James Madison | +1.5L32–35 | 51.0 | L32–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Old Dominion vs Marshall | -3.0L35–42 | 51.0 | L35–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Old Dominion at Arkansas State | -5.5W40–32 | 58.5 | W40–32 | O | Y |
South Carolina 2024 Schedule
South Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Carolina vs Old Dominion | -20.5W23–19 | 49.5 | W23–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | South Carolina at Kentucky | +9.5W31–6 | 41.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | South Carolina vs LSU | +7.0L33–36 | 50.0 | L33–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | South Carolina vs Akron | -25.0W50–7 | 42.0 | W50–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | South Carolina vs Ole Miss | +10.0L3–27 | 53.0 | L3–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | South Carolina at Alabama | +21.0L25–27 | 50.0 | L25–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | South Carolina at Oklahoma | -1.0W35–9 | 40.5 | W35–9 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | South Carolina vs Texas A&M | +3.0W44–20 | 43.5 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | South Carolina at Vanderbilt | -6.0W28–7 | 44.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | South Carolina vs Missouri | -10.5W34–30 | 42.5 | W34–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | South Carolina vs Wofford | -42.5W56–12 | 49.5 | W56–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | South Carolina at Clemson | +2.5W17–14 | 48.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | South Carolina vs Illinois | -9.5L17–21 | 50.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
15–23 (40%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kevin Decker
Yr 2
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 3
#1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
20–18 (53%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dowell Loggains
Yr 2
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓