New Mexico at Utah State Week 8 College Football Matchup New Mexico at Utah State Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Romney Stadium Logan, UT · Turf · 25,513 cap
New Mexico✈ 540 miSame TZ
50 45
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico
33
Utah State
41
P&R Line Utah State -7.5
P&R Total O/U 74
Confidence 90 High
Vegas New Mexico -1 · O/U 78.5
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor New Mexico entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -1
O/U 78.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Utah State · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Utah State 2nd straight Home Game
New Mexico 2024 Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24New Mexico vs Montana State+10.5L31–3554.0L31–35OY
Sat 8/31New Mexico at Arizona+28.0L39–6160.0L39–61OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14New Mexico at Auburn+25.5L19–4558.5L19–45ON
Sat 9/21New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.0L21–3861.0L21–38UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.5W50–4054.0W50–40OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12New Mexico vs Air Force-7.0W52–3756.0W52–37OY
Sat 10/19New Mexico at Utah State-1.0W50–4578.5W50–45OY
Sat 10/26New Mexico at Colorado State+3.5L6–1762.0L6–17UN
Sat 11/2New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.5L45–4960.5L45–49ON
Fri 11/8New Mexico at San Diego State+1.5W21–1665.5W21–16UY
Sat 11/16New Mexico vs Washington State+10.5W38–3572.5W38–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/30New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.5L30–3861.5L30–38ON
Utah State 2024 Schedule
Utah State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Utah State vs Robert Morris-18.5
Sat 9/7Utah State at USC+30.5L0–4862.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/14Utah State vs Utah+20.5L21–3843.5L21–38OY
Sat 9/21Utah State at Temple-6.5L29–4553.5L29–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Utah State at Boise State+28.0L30–6266.5L30–62ON
Fri 10/11Utah State vs UNLV+19.0L34–5067.5L34–50OY
Sat 10/19Utah State vs New Mexico+1.0L45–5078.5L45–50ON
Sat 10/26Utah State at Wyoming-2.5W27–2557.0W27–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Utah State at Washington State+20.5L28–4969.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/16Utah State vs Hawai'i+2.5W55–1062.0W55–10OY
Sat 11/23Utah State vs San Diego State-5.0W41–2060.0W41–20OY
Fri 11/29Utah State at Colorado State+5.5L37–4256.5L37–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Utah State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico #14
+0.580
Utah State #34
+0.587
Utah State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #77
+0.562
Utah State #69
+0.768
Utah State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico #114
0.135
Utah State #81
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #79
+8.272
Utah State #24
+9.053
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico #10
+0.962
Utah State #31
+0.960
New Mexico Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico #121
73.2
Utah State #90
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico
1.1
Utah State
-8.3
Offense Rating
New Mexico
17.3
Utah State
10.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico
16.2
Utah State
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico #118
0.80
Utah State #60
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #81
1.60
Utah State #127
3.00
New Mexico +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico #1
40.2
Utah State #1
21.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #98
41.2
Utah State #91
62.1
New Mexico +18.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Utah State
53.9 — 15.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
New Mexico won by 5
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
23–17 (58%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kyle Cefalo Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Dreiling Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself