Sat, Sep 14 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn, AL
·
Turf
·
87,451 cap
New Mexico✈ 1,222 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors New Mexico,
while Game Control favors Auburn.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
New Mexico wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Auburn wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Auburn -25.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Auburn
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2024 Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | New Mexico vs Montana State | +10.5L31–35 | 54.0 | L31–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | New Mexico at Arizona | +28.0L39–61 | 60.0 | L39–61 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | New Mexico at Auburn | +25.5L19–45 | 58.5 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | New Mexico vs Fresno State | +12.0L21–38 | 61.0 | L21–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | New Mexico at New Mexico State | -9.5W50–40 | 54.0 | W50–40 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | New Mexico vs Air Force | -7.0W52–37 | 56.0 | W52–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | New Mexico at Utah State | -1.0W50–45 | 78.5 | W50–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | New Mexico at Colorado State | +3.5L6–17 | 62.0 | L6–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | New Mexico vs Wyoming | -7.5L45–49 | 60.5 | L45–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/8 | New Mexico at San Diego State | +1.5W21–16 | 65.5 | W21–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | New Mexico vs Washington State | +10.5W38–35 | 72.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | New Mexico at Hawai'i | -6.5L30–38 | 61.5 | L30–38 | O | N |
Auburn 2024 Schedule
Auburn's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Auburn vs Alabama A&M | -48.5W73–3 | 58.5 | W73–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Auburn vs California | -11.5L14–21 | 52.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Auburn vs New Mexico | -25.5W45–19 | 58.5 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Auburn vs Arkansas | -2.5L14–24 | 53.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Auburn vs Oklahoma | -2.0L21–27 | 43.0 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Auburn at Georgia | +21.0L13–31 | 50.0 | L13–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Auburn at Missouri | +3.5L17–21 | 49.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Auburn at Kentucky | +2.0W24–10 | 43.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Auburn vs Vanderbilt | -7.5L7–17 | 48.0 | L7–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Auburn vs UL Monroe | -24.5W48–14 | 46.0 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Auburn vs Texas A&M | +2.5W43–41 | 47.0 | W43–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Auburn at Alabama | +10.5L14–28 | 50.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Auburn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +13.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Auburn
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Auburn
66.1 — 13.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Auburn won by 26
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jason Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Howell
Yr 1
#1
Auburn
Hugh Freeze #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Derrick Nix
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓