Air Force at New Mexico Week 7 College Football Matchup Air Force at New Mexico Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 University Stadium Albuquerque, NM · Turf · 39,224 cap
Air Force✈ 288 miSame TZ
37 52
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Air Force
27
New Mexico
31
P&R Line New Mexico -3.5
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas New Mexico -7 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -7
O/U 56.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 New Mexico Coming off BYE
Air Force 2024 Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Air Force vs Merrimack-30.5W21–647.5W21–6UN
Sat 9/7Air Force vs San José State-1.5L7–1743.5L7–17UN
Sat 9/14Air Force at Baylor+17.5L3–3140.5L3–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Air Force at Wyoming-4.0L19–3133.5L19–31ON
Sat 10/5Air Force vs Navy+10.0L7–3437.0L7–34ON
Sat 10/12Air Force at New Mexico+7.0L37–5256.0L37–52ON
Sat 10/19Air Force vs Colorado State+6.0L13–2143.5L13–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Air Force at Army+18.0L3–2038.5L3–20UY
Sat 11/9Air Force vs Fresno State+9.5W36–2840.5W36–28OY
Sat 11/16Air Force vs Oregon State+3.0W28–044.5W28–0UY
Sat 11/23Air Force at Nevada+3.0W22–1944.5W22–19UY
Sat 11/30Air Force at San Diego State-6.5W31–2043.5W31–20OY
New Mexico 2024 Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24New Mexico vs Montana State+10.5L31–3554.0L31–35OY
Sat 8/31New Mexico at Arizona+28.0L39–6160.0L39–61OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14New Mexico at Auburn+25.5L19–4558.5L19–45ON
Sat 9/21New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.0L21–3861.0L21–38UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.5W50–4054.0W50–40OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12New Mexico vs Air Force-7.0W52–3756.0W52–37OY
Sat 10/19New Mexico at Utah State-1.0W50–4578.5W50–45OY
Sat 10/26New Mexico at Colorado State+3.5L6–1762.0L6–17UN
Sat 11/2New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.5L45–4960.5L45–49ON
Fri 11/8New Mexico at San Diego State+1.5W21–1665.5W21–16UY
Sat 11/16New Mexico vs Washington State+10.5W38–3572.5W38–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/30New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.5L30–3861.5L30–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
New Mexico PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Air Force #103
+0.473
New Mexico #14
+0.508
New Mexico Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #124
+0.605
New Mexico #77
+0.572
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Air Force #86
0.146
New Mexico #114
0.135
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Air Force Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #56
+8.656
New Mexico #79
+7.798
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Air Force #77
+0.925
New Mexico #10
+0.906
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Air Force #78
71.4
New Mexico #121
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Air Force Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Air Force
-8.3
New Mexico
1.1
Offense Rating
Air Force
8.5
New Mexico
17.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Air Force
16.9
New Mexico
16.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Air Force #82
0.50
New Mexico #118
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #69
1.50
New Mexico #81
1.75
Air Force +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Air Force #1
25.8
New Mexico #1
34.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #110
60.3
New Mexico #98
47.2
New Mexico +8.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico
2 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
New Mexico
69.2 — 11.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
New Mexico won by 15
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
130–82 (61%) · Yr 18 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself