Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Liberty wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -41.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Campbell 2024 Schedule
Campbell's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Campbell at Liberty | +41.5L24–41 | 58.5 | L24–41 | O | Y |
Liberty 2024 Schedule
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Liberty vs Campbell | -41.5W41–24 | 58.5 | W41–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Liberty at New Mexico State | -22.5W30–24 | 54.5 | W30–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Liberty vs UTEP | -23.5W28–10 | 57.5 | W28–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Liberty vs East Carolina | -7.5W35–24 | 55.0 | W35–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/8 | Liberty vs Florida International | -15.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/23 | Liberty at Kennesaw State | -27.0L24–27 | 48.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Wed 10/30 | Liberty vs Jacksonville State | -2.5L21–31 | 64.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Liberty at Middle Tennessee | -12.5W37–17 | 54.5 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Liberty at Massachusetts | -17.0W35–34 | 53.0 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Liberty vs Western Kentucky | -1.0W38–21 | 56.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Liberty at Sam Houston | -2.5L18–20 | 47.5 | L18–20 | U | N |
| Sat 1/4 | Liberty vs Buffalo | +4.5L7–26 | 50.5 | L7–26 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Campbell Edge
Campbell +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +54.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓