San José State at Boise State Week 6 College Football Matchup San José State at Boise State Matchup - Week 6
Sun, Oct 8 2023 · Week 6 · 🏟 Albertsons Stadium Boise, ID · Turf · 36,387 cap
San José State✈ 526 mi+1 hr TZ
27 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
24
BSU -8
Boise State
34
P&R Line Boise State -10
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Boise State -8 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Boise State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Boise State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Boise State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boise State -8
O/U 57.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Boise State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 San José State Coming off BYE
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26San José State at USC+31.5L28–5666.0L28–56OY
Sun 9/3San José State vs Oregon State+14.0L17–4256.5L17–42ON
Sat 9/9San José State vs Cal Poly-23.5W59–360.0W59–3OY
Sat 9/16San José State at Toledo+9.0L17–2156.5L17–21UY
Fri 9/22San José State vs Air Force+6.0L20–4545.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7San José State at Boise State+8.0L27–3557.5L27–35OY
Sat 10/14San José State at New Mexico-6.5W52–2455.0W52–24OY
Sat 10/21San José State vs Utah State-4.0W42–2165.0W42–21UY
Sat 10/28San José State at Hawai'i-10.5W35–057.0W35–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11San José State vs Fresno State-2.5W42–1851.5W42–18OY
Sat 11/18San José State vs San Diego State-16.5W24–1348.5W24–13UN
Sat 11/25San José State at UNLV+3.5W37–3158.5W37–31OY
Sat 12/23San José State vs Coastal Carolina-7.5L14–2448.0L14–24UN
Boise State 2023 Schedule
Boise State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Boise State at Washington+14.0L19–5659.0L19–56ON
Sat 9/9Boise State vs UCF+3.0L16–1858.5L16–18UY
Sat 9/16Boise State vs North Dakota-15.0W42–1858.0W42–18OY
Fri 9/22Boise State at San Diego State-6.5W34–3146.0W34–31ON
Sat 9/30Boise State at Memphis+3.0L32–3558.0L32–35OY
Sat 10/7Boise State vs San José State-8.0W35–2757.5W35–27ON
Sat 10/14Boise State at Colorado State-7.5L30–3160.0L30–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Boise State vs Wyoming-4.5W32–748.5W32–7UY
Sat 11/4Boise State at Fresno State+2.5L30–3753.5L30–37ON
Sat 11/11Boise State vs New Mexico-27.5W42–1458.5W42–14UY
Sat 11/18Boise State at Utah State-5.5W45–1062.5W45–10UY
Fri 11/24Boise State vs Air Force-6.5W27–1944.5W27–19OY
Sat 12/2Boise State at UNLV-2.5W44–2058.0W44–20OY
Sat 12/16Boise State vs UCLA+6.5L22–3546.0L22–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Boise State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #22
+0.503
Boise State #19
+0.538
Boise State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #44
+0.618
Boise State #29
+0.661
Boise State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #102
0.147
Boise State #45
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Boise State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #81
+7.768
Boise State #38
+8.068
Boise State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #29
+0.868
Boise State #21
+0.895
Boise State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #3
65.5
Boise State #65
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Boise State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Boise State
3.3
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Boise State
18.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Boise State
14.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Boise State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #24
0.50
Boise State #9
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #69
1.75
Boise State #60
1.00
Boise State +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boise State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
33.5
Boise State #1
39.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #48
52.9
Boise State #34
37.3
Boise State +6.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
2 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San José State
25.5 — 61.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Boise State won by 8
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Boise State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 3 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bush Hamdan Yr 1 #1
DC Spencer Danielson Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself