Sat, Sep 9 2023
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
Cal Poly✈ 154 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
San José State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San José State -23.5
O/U 60.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Cal Poly 2023 Schedule
Cal Poly's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/9 | Cal Poly at San José State | +23.5L3–59 | 60.0 | L3–59 | O | N |
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | San José State at USC | +31.5L28–56 | 66.0 | L28–56 | O | Y |
| Sun 9/3 | San José State vs Oregon State | +14.0L17–42 | 56.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | San José State vs Cal Poly | -23.5W59–3 | 60.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | San José State at Toledo | +9.0L17–21 | 56.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | San José State vs Air Force | +6.0L20–45 | 45.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | San José State at Boise State | +8.0L27–35 | 57.5 | L27–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | San José State at New Mexico | -6.5W52–24 | 55.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | San José State vs Utah State | -4.0W42–21 | 65.0 | W42–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | San José State at Hawai'i | -10.5W35–0 | 57.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/11 | San José State vs Fresno State | -2.5W42–18 | 51.5 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | San José State vs San Diego State | -16.5W24–13 | 48.5 | W24–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | San José State at UNLV | +3.5W37–31 | 58.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | San José State vs Coastal Carolina | -7.5L14–24 | 48.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Cal Poly Edge
Cal Poly +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San José State Edge
San José State +57.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓