Sun, Oct 15 2023
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Canvas Stadium
Fort Collins, CO
·
Turf
·
41,000 cap
Boise State✈ 606 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Boise State,
while Game Control favors Colorado State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Colorado State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boise State -7.5
O/U 60.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boise State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boise State 2023 Schedule
Boise State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Boise State at Washington | +14.0L19–56 | 59.0 | L19–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Boise State vs UCF | +3.0L16–18 | 58.5 | L16–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Boise State vs North Dakota | -15.0W42–18 | 58.0 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Boise State at San Diego State | -6.5W34–31 | 46.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Boise State at Memphis | +3.0L32–35 | 58.0 | L32–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Boise State vs San José State | -8.0W35–27 | 57.5 | W35–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Boise State at Colorado State | -7.5L30–31 | 60.0 | L30–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Boise State vs Wyoming | -4.5W32–7 | 48.5 | W32–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Boise State at Fresno State | +2.5L30–37 | 53.5 | L30–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Boise State vs New Mexico | -27.5W42–14 | 58.5 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Boise State at Utah State | -5.5W45–10 | 62.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Boise State vs Air Force | -6.5W27–19 | 44.5 | W27–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Boise State at UNLV | -2.5W44–20 | 58.0 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Boise State vs UCLA | +6.5L22–35 | 46.0 | L22–35 | O | N |
Colorado State 2023 Schedule
Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Colorado State vs Washington State | +9.5L24–50 | 54.0 | L24–50 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/16 | Colorado State at Colorado | +23.0L35–43 | 63.0 | L35–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Colorado State at Middle Tennessee | +3.5W31–23 | 50.0 | W31–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Colorado State vs Utah Tech | -19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/7 | Colorado State at Utah State | -3.0L24–44 | 62.0 | L24–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Colorado State vs Boise State | +7.5W31–30 | 60.0 | W31–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Colorado State at UNLV | +6.5L23–25 | 60.0 | L23–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Colorado State vs Air Force | +14.5L13–30 | 47.0 | L13–30 | U | N |
| Fri 11/3 | Colorado State at Wyoming | +6.0L15–24 | 41.0 | L15–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Colorado State vs San Diego State | -3.5W22–19 | 46.5 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Colorado State vs Nevada | -12.5W30–20 | 45.5 | W30–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Colorado State at Hawai'i | -6.0L24–27 | 54.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +5.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Boise State
6.9 — 84.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Colorado State won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bush Hamdan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spencer Danielson
Yr 3
#1
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
3–11 (21%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 2
#1
DC
Freddie Banks
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓