San Diego State at San José State Week 12 College Football Matchup San Diego State at San José State Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 19 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
San Diego State✈ 412 miSame TZ
13 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
20
SDSU +16.5
San José State
30
P&R Line San José State -10
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas San José State -16.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
San José State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
San José State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
San José State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San José State -16.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 San José State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 San Diego State 2nd straight Road Game
San Diego State 2023 Schedule
San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26San Diego State vs Ohio-2.0W20–1348.5W20–13UY
Sat 9/2San Diego State vs Idaho State-34.5W36–2851.0W36–28ON
Sat 9/9San Diego State vs UCLA+13.0L10–3549.0L10–35UN
Sat 9/16San Diego State at Oregon State+24.5L9–2648.5L9–26UY
Fri 9/22San Diego State vs Boise State+6.5L31–3446.0L31–34OY
Sat 9/30San Diego State at Air Force+10.5L10–4943.5L10–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.0W41–3451.5W41–34OY
Sat 10/21San Diego State vs Nevada-11.0L0–648.5L0–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4San Diego State vs Utah State+2.0L24–3256.5L24–32UN
Sat 11/11San Diego State at Colorado State+3.5L19–2246.5L19–22UY
Sat 11/18San Diego State at San José State+16.5L13–2448.5L13–24UY
Sat 11/25San Diego State vs Fresno State+5.5W33–1847.0W33–18OY
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26San José State at USC+31.5L28–5666.0L28–56OY
Sun 9/3San José State vs Oregon State+14.0L17–4256.5L17–42ON
Sat 9/9San José State vs Cal Poly-23.5W59–360.0W59–3OY
Sat 9/16San José State at Toledo+9.0L17–2156.5L17–21UY
Fri 9/22San José State vs Air Force+6.0L20–4545.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7San José State at Boise State+8.0L27–3557.5L27–35OY
Sat 10/14San José State at New Mexico-6.5W52–2455.0W52–24OY
Sat 10/21San José State vs Utah State-4.0W42–2165.0W42–21UY
Sat 10/28San José State at Hawai'i-10.5W35–057.0W35–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11San José State vs Fresno State-2.5W42–1851.5W42–18OY
Sat 11/18San José State vs San Diego State-16.5W24–1348.5W24–13UN
Sat 11/25San José State at UNLV+3.5W37–3158.5W37–31OY
Sat 12/23San José State vs Coastal Carolina-7.5L14–2448.0L14–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State #96
+0.380
San José State #22
+0.531
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #91
+0.497
San José State #44
+0.611
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State #79
0.157
San José State #102
0.147
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #116
+7.061
San José State #81
+7.106
San José State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State #70
+0.847
San José State #29
+0.923
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State #14
68.4
San José State #3
65.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
2.6
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
San Diego State
15.6
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #93
0.44
San José State #24
1.44
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #57
1.00
San José State #69
1.22
San José State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
29.1
San José State #1
53.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #92
49.4
San José State #48
32.4
San José State +24.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
San José State
43.7 — 21.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
San José State won by 11
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
25–14 (64%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Ryan Lindley Yr 1 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 3 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself