Sun, Nov 12 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
Fresno State✈ 121 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -2.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2023 Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Fresno State at Purdue | +4.0W39–35 | 47.0 | W39–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Fresno State vs Eastern Washington | -31.5W34–31 | 63.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Fresno State at Arizona State | -4.0W29–0 | 48.0 | W29–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Fresno State vs Kent State | -27.5W53–10 | 47.5 | W53–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -25.5W27–9 | 50.5 | W27–9 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Fresno State at Wyoming | -5.5L19–24 | 43.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/13 | Fresno State at Utah State | -5.5W37–32 | 56.0 | W37–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Fresno State vs UNLV | -10.5W31–24 | 56.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Fresno State vs Boise State | -2.5W37–30 | 53.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Fresno State at San José State | +2.5L18–42 | 51.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Fresno State vs New Mexico | -22.5L17–25 | 58.5 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Fresno State at San Diego State | -5.5L18–33 | 47.0 | L18–33 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Fresno State vs New Mexico State | +3.0W37–10 | 52.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | San José State at USC | +31.5L28–56 | 66.0 | L28–56 | O | Y |
| Sun 9/3 | San José State vs Oregon State | +14.0L17–42 | 56.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | San José State vs Cal Poly | -23.5W59–3 | 60.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | San José State at Toledo | +9.0L17–21 | 56.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | San José State vs Air Force | +6.0L20–45 | 45.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | San José State at Boise State | +8.0L27–35 | 57.5 | L27–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | San José State at New Mexico | -6.5W52–24 | 55.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | San José State vs Utah State | -4.0W42–21 | 65.0 | W42–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | San José State at Hawai'i | -10.5W35–0 | 57.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/11 | San José State vs Fresno State | -2.5W42–18 | 51.5 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | San José State vs San Diego State | -16.5W24–13 | 48.5 | W24–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | San José State at UNLV | +3.5W37–31 | 58.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | San José State vs Coastal Carolina | -7.5L14–24 | 48.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San José State
90.2 — 4.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San José State won by 24
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Fresno State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
39–18 (68%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Pat McCann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Coyle
Yr 2
#1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 3
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

