Fresno State at San José State Week 11 College Football Matchup Fresno State at San José State Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 12 2023 · Week 11 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Fresno State✈ 121 miSame TZ
18 42
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Fresno State
26
San José State
27
P&R Line San José State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas San José State -2.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -2.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 San José State Coming off BYE
Fresno State 2023 Schedule
Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Fresno State at Purdue+4.0W39–3547.0W39–35OY
Sat 9/9Fresno State vs Eastern Washington-31.5W34–3163.5W34–31ON
Sat 9/16Fresno State at Arizona State-4.0W29–048.0W29–0UY
Sat 9/23Fresno State vs Kent State-27.5W53–1047.5W53–10OY
Sat 9/30Fresno State vs Nevada-25.5W27–950.5W27–9UN
Sat 10/7Fresno State at Wyoming-5.5L19–2443.0L19–24UN
Fri 10/13Fresno State at Utah State-5.5W37–3256.0W37–32ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Fresno State vs UNLV-10.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
Sat 11/4Fresno State vs Boise State-2.5W37–3053.5W37–30OY
Sat 11/11Fresno State at San José State+2.5L18–4251.5L18–42ON
Sat 11/18Fresno State vs New Mexico-22.5L17–2558.5L17–25UN
Sat 11/25Fresno State at San Diego State-5.5L18–3347.0L18–33ON
Sat 12/16Fresno State vs New Mexico State+3.0W37–1052.5W37–10UY
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26San José State at USC+31.5L28–5666.0L28–56OY
Sun 9/3San José State vs Oregon State+14.0L17–4256.5L17–42ON
Sat 9/9San José State vs Cal Poly-23.5W59–360.0W59–3OY
Sat 9/16San José State at Toledo+9.0L17–2156.5L17–21UY
Fri 9/22San José State vs Air Force+6.0L20–4545.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7San José State at Boise State+8.0L27–3557.5L27–35OY
Sat 10/14San José State at New Mexico-6.5W52–2455.0W52–24OY
Sat 10/21San José State vs Utah State-4.0W42–2165.0W42–21UY
Sat 10/28San José State at Hawai'i-10.5W35–057.0W35–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11San José State vs Fresno State-2.5W42–1851.5W42–18OY
Sat 11/18San José State vs San Diego State-16.5W24–1348.5W24–13UN
Sat 11/25San José State at UNLV+3.5W37–3158.5W37–31OY
Sat 12/23San José State vs Coastal Carolina-7.5L14–2448.0L14–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Fresno State #51
+0.461
San José State #22
+0.467
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #65
+0.581
San José State #44
+0.645
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Fresno State #77
0.159
San José State #102
0.147
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Fresno State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Fresno State #36
+8.069
San José State #81
+7.036
Fresno State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Fresno State #48
+0.867
San José State #29
+0.869
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Fresno State #15
68.6
San José State #3
65.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Fresno State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Fresno State
2.4
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Fresno State
15.1
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Fresno State
12.8
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Fresno State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Fresno State #17
2.00
San José State #24
1.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #29
0.50
San José State #69
1.38
Fresno State +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Fresno State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Fresno State #1
59.6
San José State #1
49.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Fresno State #47
25.7
San José State #48
35.5
Fresno State +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San José State
90.2 — 4.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San José State won by 24
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Fresno State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
39–18 (68%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Pat McCann Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Coyle Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 3 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself