San José State at USC Week 1 College Football Matchup San José State at USC Matchup - Week 1
Sun, Aug 27 2023 · Week 1 · 🏟 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Los Angeles, CA · Turf · 93,607 cap
San José State✈ 304 miSame TZ
28 56
Final
USC
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
27
SJSU +31.5
USC
40
P&R Line USC -13
P&R Total O/U 66.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas USC -31.5 · O/U 66.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
USC -31.5
O/U 66.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26San José State at USC+31.5L28–5666.0L28–56OY
Sun 9/3San José State vs Oregon State+14.0L17–4256.5L17–42ON
Sat 9/9San José State vs Cal Poly-23.5W59–360.0W59–3OY
Sat 9/16San José State at Toledo+9.0L17–2156.5L17–21UY
Fri 9/22San José State vs Air Force+6.0L20–4545.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7San José State at Boise State+8.0L27–3557.5L27–35OY
Sat 10/14San José State at New Mexico-6.5W52–2455.0W52–24OY
Sat 10/21San José State vs Utah State-4.0W42–2165.0W42–21UY
Sat 10/28San José State at Hawai'i-10.5W35–057.0W35–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11San José State vs Fresno State-2.5W42–1851.5W42–18OY
Sat 11/18San José State vs San Diego State-16.5W24–1348.5W24–13UN
Sat 11/25San José State at UNLV+3.5W37–3158.5W37–31OY
Sat 12/23San José State vs Coastal Carolina-7.5L14–2448.0L14–24UN
USC 2023 Schedule
USC's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26USC vs San José State-31.5W56–2866.0W56–28ON
Sat 9/2USC vs Nevada-37.5W66–1463.5W66–14OY
Sat 9/9USC vs Stanford-28.5W56–1070.5W56–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23USC at Arizona State-34.5W42–2862.0W42–28ON
Sat 9/30USC at Colorado-22.0W48–4174.5W48–41ON
Sat 10/7USC vs Arizona-21.0W43–4169.5W43–41ON
Sat 10/14USC at Notre Dame+3.0L20–4861.0L20–48ON
Sat 10/21USC vs Utah-7.5L32–3451.5L32–34ON
Sat 10/28USC at California-10.5W50–4967.5W50–49ON
Sat 11/4USC vs Washington+3.0L42–5276.0L42–52ON
Sat 11/11USC at Oregon+12.5L27–3678.5L27–36UY
Sat 11/18USC vs UCLA-6.0L20–3865.5L20–38UN
Wed 12/27USC vs Louisville+4.5W42–2858.0W42–28OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
USC PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #22
+0.578
USC #6
+0.635
USC Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #44
+0.661
USC #14
+0.758
USC Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #102
0.147
USC #116
0.140
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #81
+7.282
USC #4
+8.851
USC Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #29
+0.913
USC #15
+0.903
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #3
65.5
USC #44
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
USC Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
USC
17.0
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
USC
26.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
USC
9.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #24
0.00
USC #54
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #69
0.00
USC #58
0.00
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
0.0
USC #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #48
0.0
USC #58
0.0
San José State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on USC, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 3 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
USC
Lincoln Riley #1
14–3 (82%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Josh Henson Yr 2 #1
DC Alex Grinch Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself