Sat, Oct 14 2023
·
Week 7
·
🏟 University Stadium
Albuquerque, NM
·
Turf
·
39,224 cap
San José State✈ 862 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors San José State,
while Game Control favors New Mexico.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
New Mexico wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
San José State -6.5
O/U 55.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | San José State at USC | +31.5L28–56 | 66.0 | L28–56 | O | Y |
| Sun 9/3 | San José State vs Oregon State | +14.0L17–42 | 56.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | San José State vs Cal Poly | -23.5W59–3 | 60.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | San José State at Toledo | +9.0L17–21 | 56.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | San José State vs Air Force | +6.0L20–45 | 45.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | San José State at Boise State | +8.0L27–35 | 57.5 | L27–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | San José State at New Mexico | -6.5W52–24 | 55.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | San José State vs Utah State | -4.0W42–21 | 65.0 | W42–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | San José State at Hawai'i | -10.5W35–0 | 57.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/11 | San José State vs Fresno State | -2.5W42–18 | 51.5 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | San José State vs San Diego State | -16.5W24–13 | 48.5 | W24–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | San José State at UNLV | +3.5W37–31 | 58.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | San José State vs Coastal Carolina | -7.5L14–24 | 48.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
New Mexico 2023 Schedule
New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | New Mexico at Texas A&M | +37.5L10–52 | 48.5 | L10–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech | -16.0W56–10 | 51.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | New Mexico vs New Mexico State | -2.5L17–27 | 52.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | New Mexico at Massachusetts | +3.5W34–31 | 48.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | New Mexico at Wyoming | +14.5L26–35 | 40.5 | L26–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | New Mexico vs San José State | +6.5L24–52 | 55.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | New Mexico vs Hawai'i | +1.5W42–21 | 60.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | New Mexico at Nevada | -1.0L24–34 | 50.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | New Mexico vs UNLV | +10.0L14–56 | 61.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | New Mexico at Boise State | +27.5L14–42 | 58.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | New Mexico at Fresno State | +22.5W25–17 | 58.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | New Mexico vs Utah State | +4.5L41–44 | 58.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San José State Edge
San José State +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +1.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
1 — 4 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
San José State
14.8 — 60.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San José State won by 28
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 3
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 3
#1
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
8–26 (24%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Bryant Vincent
Yr 1
#1
DC
Troy Reffett
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓