New Mexico at Boise State Week 11 College Football Matchup New Mexico at Boise State Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 12 2023 · Week 11 · 🏟 Albertsons Stadium Boise, ID · Turf · 36,387 cap
New Mexico✈ 779 miSame TZ
14 42
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico
19
UNM +27.5
Boise State
39
P&R Line Boise State -19.5
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Boise State -27.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Boise State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Boise State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Boise State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boise State -27.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Boise State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2023 Schedule
New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2New Mexico at Texas A&M+37.5L10–5248.5L10–52ON
Sat 9/9New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech-16.0W56–1051.5W56–10OY
Sat 9/16New Mexico vs New Mexico State-2.5L17–2752.0L17–27UN
Sat 9/23New Mexico at Massachusetts+3.5W34–3148.5W34–31OY
Sat 9/30New Mexico at Wyoming+14.5L26–3540.5L26–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14New Mexico vs San José State+6.5L24–5255.0L24–52ON
Sat 10/21New Mexico vs Hawai'i+1.5W42–2160.0W42–21OY
Sat 10/28New Mexico at Nevada-1.0L24–3450.0L24–34ON
Sat 11/4New Mexico vs UNLV+10.0L14–5661.0L14–56ON
Sat 11/11New Mexico at Boise State+27.5L14–4258.5L14–42UN
Sat 11/18New Mexico at Fresno State+22.5W25–1758.5W25–17UY
Fri 11/24New Mexico vs Utah State+4.5L41–4458.5L41–44OY
Boise State 2023 Schedule
Boise State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Boise State at Washington+14.0L19–5659.0L19–56ON
Sat 9/9Boise State vs UCF+3.0L16–1858.5L16–18UY
Sat 9/16Boise State vs North Dakota-15.0W42–1858.0W42–18OY
Fri 9/22Boise State at San Diego State-6.5W34–3146.0W34–31ON
Sat 9/30Boise State at Memphis+3.0L32–3558.0L32–35OY
Sat 10/7Boise State vs San José State-8.0W35–2757.5W35–27ON
Sat 10/14Boise State at Colorado State-7.5L30–3160.0L30–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Boise State vs Wyoming-4.5W32–748.5W32–7UY
Sat 11/4Boise State at Fresno State+2.5L30–3753.5L30–37ON
Sat 11/11Boise State vs New Mexico-27.5W42–1458.5W42–14UY
Sat 11/18Boise State at Utah State-5.5W45–1062.5W45–10UY
Fri 11/24Boise State vs Air Force-6.5W27–1944.5W27–19OY
Sat 12/2Boise State at UNLV-2.5W44–2058.0W44–20OY
Sat 12/16Boise State vs UCLA+6.5L22–3546.0L22–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Boise State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Boise State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico #15
+0.526
Boise State #19
+0.613
Boise State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #23
+0.696
Boise State #29
+0.824
Boise State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico #54
0.168
Boise State #45
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Boise State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #49
+8.144
Boise State #38
+8.436
Boise State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico #12
+0.896
Boise State #21
+0.951
Boise State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico #133
75.5
Boise State #65
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boise State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Boise State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico
1.2
Boise State
3.3
Offense Rating
New Mexico
17.3
Boise State
18.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico
16.1
Boise State
14.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Boise State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico #98
0.75
Boise State #9
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #129
2.00
Boise State #60
1.25
Boise State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boise State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico #1
35.0
Boise State #1
43.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #117
51.5
Boise State #34
39.0
Boise State +8.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boise State
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boise State
88.0 — 5.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Boise State won by 28
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Boise State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
8–26 (24%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Bryant Vincent Yr 1 #1
DC Troy Reffett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bush Hamdan Yr 1 #1
DC Spencer Danielson Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself