Sat, Sep 9 2023
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Albertsons Stadium
Boise, ID
·
Turf
·
36,387 cap
UCF✈ 2,189 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
UCF
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UCF entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
UCF wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
UCF wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UCF -3
O/U 58.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
UCF 2023 Schedule
UCF's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | UCF vs Kent State | -35.0W56–6 | 54.0 | W56–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | UCF at Boise State | -3.0W18–16 | 58.5 | W18–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | UCF vs Villanova | -26.5W48–14 | 54.0 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | UCF at Kansas State | +6.0L31–44 | 53.5 | L31–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | UCF vs Baylor | -8.0L35–36 | 56.5 | L35–36 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | UCF at Kansas | -2.0L22–51 | 65.0 | L22–51 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | UCF at Oklahoma | +17.0L29–31 | 67.5 | L29–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | UCF vs West Virginia | -6.5L28–41 | 59.5 | L28–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | UCF at Cincinnati | -3.5W28–26 | 59.5 | W28–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | UCF vs Oklahoma State | +2.5W45–3 | 63.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | UCF at Texas Tech | +2.0L23–24 | 59.0 | L23–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | UCF vs Houston | -15.5W27–13 | 61.5 | W27–13 | U | N |
| Fri 12/22 | UCF vs Georgia Tech | -6.0L17–30 | 66.5 | L17–30 | U | N |
Boise State 2023 Schedule
Boise State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Boise State at Washington | +14.0L19–56 | 59.0 | L19–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Boise State vs UCF | +3.0L16–18 | 58.5 | L16–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Boise State vs North Dakota | -15.0W42–18 | 58.0 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Boise State at San Diego State | -6.5W34–31 | 46.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Boise State at Memphis | +3.0L32–35 | 58.0 | L32–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Boise State vs San José State | -8.0W35–27 | 57.5 | W35–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Boise State at Colorado State | -7.5L30–31 | 60.0 | L30–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Boise State vs Wyoming | -4.5W32–7 | 48.5 | W32–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Boise State at Fresno State | +2.5L30–37 | 53.5 | L30–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Boise State vs New Mexico | -27.5W42–14 | 58.5 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Boise State at Utah State | -5.5W45–10 | 62.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Boise State vs Air Force | -6.5W27–19 | 44.5 | W27–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Boise State at UNLV | -2.5W44–20 | 58.0 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Boise State vs UCLA | +6.5L22–35 | 46.0 | L22–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UCF Edge
UCF +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +91.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UCF with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
21–9 (70%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Darin Hinshaw
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Gibbs
Yr 2
#1
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bush Hamdan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spencer Danielson
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓