Sun, Nov 19 2023
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Romney Stadium
Logan, UT
·
Turf
·
25,513 cap
Boise State✈ 256 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boise State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boise State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Boise State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Boise State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boise State -5.5
O/U 62.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boise State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boise State 2023 Schedule
Boise State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Boise State at Washington | +14.0L19–56 | 59.0 | L19–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Boise State vs UCF | +3.0L16–18 | 58.5 | L16–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Boise State vs North Dakota | -15.0W42–18 | 58.0 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Boise State at San Diego State | -6.5W34–31 | 46.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Boise State at Memphis | +3.0L32–35 | 58.0 | L32–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Boise State vs San José State | -8.0W35–27 | 57.5 | W35–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Boise State at Colorado State | -7.5L30–31 | 60.0 | L30–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Boise State vs Wyoming | -4.5W32–7 | 48.5 | W32–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Boise State at Fresno State | +2.5L30–37 | 53.5 | L30–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Boise State vs New Mexico | -27.5W42–14 | 58.5 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Boise State at Utah State | -5.5W45–10 | 62.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Boise State vs Air Force | -6.5W27–19 | 44.5 | W27–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Boise State at UNLV | -2.5W44–20 | 58.0 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Boise State vs UCLA | +6.5L22–35 | 46.0 | L22–35 | O | N |
Utah State 2023 Schedule
Utah State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Utah State at Iowa | +24.0L14–24 | 43.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Utah State vs Idaho State | -24.0W78–28 | 61.0 | W78–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/15 | Utah State at Air Force | +9.0L21–39 | 45.5 | L21–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Utah State vs James Madison | +5.5L38–45 | 53.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Utah State at UConn | -4.0W34–33 | 50.5 | W34–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Utah State vs Colorado State | +3.0W44–24 | 62.0 | W44–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/13 | Utah State vs Fresno State | +5.5L32–37 | 56.0 | L32–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Utah State at San José State | +4.0L21–42 | 65.0 | L21–42 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Utah State at San Diego State | -2.0W32–24 | 56.5 | W32–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Utah State vs Nevada | -14.5W41–24 | 54.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Utah State vs Boise State | +5.5L10–45 | 62.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Utah State at New Mexico | -4.5W44–41 | 58.5 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Utah State vs Georgia State | -2.0L22–45 | 58.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +15.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boise State
1 — 5 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boise State
13.2 — 68.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Boise State won by 35
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boise State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bush Hamdan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spencer Danielson
Yr 3
#1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
18–12 (60%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kyle Cefalo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Cauthen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓