San José State at UNLV Week 13 College Football Matchup San José State at UNLV Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 25 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas, NV · Turf · 65,000 cap
San José State✈ 2,767 miSame TZ
37 31
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
28
UNLV
32
P&R Line UNLV -4
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UNLV -3.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
UNLV has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UNLV wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UNLV -3.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26San José State at USC+31.5L28–5666.0L28–56OY
Sun 9/3San José State vs Oregon State+14.0L17–4256.5L17–42ON
Sat 9/9San José State vs Cal Poly-23.5W59–360.0W59–3OY
Sat 9/16San José State at Toledo+9.0L17–2156.5L17–21UY
Fri 9/22San José State vs Air Force+6.0L20–4545.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7San José State at Boise State+8.0L27–3557.5L27–35OY
Sat 10/14San José State at New Mexico-6.5W52–2455.0W52–24OY
Sat 10/21San José State vs Utah State-4.0W42–2165.0W42–21UY
Sat 10/28San José State at Hawai'i-10.5W35–057.0W35–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11San José State vs Fresno State-2.5W42–1851.5W42–18OY
Sat 11/18San José State vs San Diego State-16.5W24–1348.5W24–13UN
Sat 11/25San José State at UNLV+3.5W37–3158.5W37–31OY
Sat 12/23San José State vs Coastal Carolina-7.5L14–2448.0L14–24UN
UNLV 2023 Schedule
UNLV's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2UNLV vs Bryant-16.5W44–1466.0W44–14UY
Sat 9/9UNLV at Michigan+38.0L7–3557.5L7–35UY
Sat 9/16UNLV vs Vanderbilt+4.5W40–3756.5W40–37OY
Sat 9/23UNLV at UTEP+1.0W45–2849.5W45–28OY
Sat 9/30UNLV vs Hawai'i-10.5W44–2058.5W44–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14UNLV at Nevada-7.5W45–2751.5W45–27OY
Sat 10/21UNLV vs Colorado State-6.5W25–2360.0W25–23UN
Sat 10/28UNLV at Fresno State+10.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Sat 11/4UNLV at New Mexico-10.0W56–1461.0W56–14OY
Fri 11/10UNLV vs Wyoming-2.5W34–1448.5W34–14UY
Sat 11/18UNLV at Air Force+2.5W31–2746.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/25UNLV vs San José State-3.5L31–3758.5L31–37ON
Sat 12/2UNLV vs Boise State+2.5L20–4458.0L20–44ON
Tue 12/26UNLV vs Kansas+8.0L36–4964.5L36–49ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #22
+0.550
UNLV #38
+0.508
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #44
+0.823
UNLV #30
+0.658
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #102
0.147
UNLV #125
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #81
+7.808
UNLV #40
+8.057
UNLV Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #29
+0.872
UNLV #58
+0.854
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #3
65.5
UNLV #9
66.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UNLV Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
UNLV
2.0
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
UNLV
17.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
UNLV
15.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UNLV Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #24
1.40
UNLV #42
1.90
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #69
1.10
UNLV #110
1.20
UNLV +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UNLV Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
52.9
UNLV #1
62.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #48
31.5
UNLV #61
25.3
UNLV +9.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
1 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San José State
6.3 — 92.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San José State won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UNLV. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 3 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brennan Marion Yr 1 #1
DC Michael Scherer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself