Air Force at San José State Week 4 College Football Matchup Air Force at San José State Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 23 2023 · Week 4 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Air Force✈ 930 mi-1 hr TZ
45 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Air Force
25
SJSU +6
San José State
24
P&R Line Air Force -1.5
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Air Force -6 · O/U 45.5
Matchup Prediction
Air Force has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Air Force entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Air Force wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Air Force wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Air Force -6
O/U 45.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Air Force · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Air Force 2023 Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.0W42–751.0W42–7UN
Sat 9/9Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.5W13–336.5W13–3UN
Fri 9/15Air Force vs Utah State-9.0W39–2145.5W39–21OY
Fri 9/22Air Force at San José State-6.0W45–2045.5W45–20OY
Sat 9/30Air Force vs San Diego State-10.5W49–1043.5W49–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Air Force vs Wyoming-12.5W34–2742.0W34–27ON
Sat 10/21Air Force at Navy-11.0W17–634.0W17–6UN
Sat 10/28Air Force at Colorado State-14.5W30–1347.0W30–13UY
Sat 11/4Air Force vs Army-18.5L3–2332.0L3–23UN
Sat 11/11Air Force at Hawai'i-22.5L13–2747.5L13–27UN
Sat 11/18Air Force vs UNLV-2.5L27–3146.5L27–31ON
Fri 11/24Air Force at Boise State+6.5L19–2744.5L19–27ON
Sat 12/23Air Force vs James Madison-2.5W31–2144.5W31–21OY
San José State 2023 Schedule
San José State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26San José State at USC+31.5L28–5666.0L28–56OY
Sun 9/3San José State vs Oregon State+14.0L17–4256.5L17–42ON
Sat 9/9San José State vs Cal Poly-23.5W59–360.0W59–3OY
Sat 9/16San José State at Toledo+9.0L17–2156.5L17–21UY
Fri 9/22San José State vs Air Force+6.0L20–4545.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7San José State at Boise State+8.0L27–3557.5L27–35OY
Sat 10/14San José State at New Mexico-6.5W52–2455.0W52–24OY
Sat 10/21San José State vs Utah State-4.0W42–2165.0W42–21UY
Sat 10/28San José State at Hawai'i-10.5W35–057.0W35–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11San José State vs Fresno State-2.5W42–1851.5W42–18OY
Sat 11/18San José State vs San Diego State-16.5W24–1348.5W24–13UN
Sat 11/25San José State at UNLV+3.5W37–3158.5W37–31OY
Sat 12/23San José State vs Coastal Carolina-7.5L14–2448.0L14–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Air Force PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Air Force #26
+0.526
San José State #22
+0.411
Air Force Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #9
+0.792
San José State #44
+0.554
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Air Force #113
0.144
San José State #102
0.147
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #52
+7.918
San José State #81
+7.689
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Air Force #31
+0.883
San José State #29
+0.848
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Air Force #36
69.4
San José State #3
65.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Air Force Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Air Force
-5.2
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Air Force
12.5
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Air Force
17.7
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Air Force Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Air Force #7
2.00
San José State #24
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #8
0.00
San José State #69
0.67
Air Force +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Air Force Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Air Force #1
77.3
San José State #1
34.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #46
7.8
San José State #48
54.3
Air Force +42.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Air Force
1 — 5 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Air Force
29.6 — 47.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Air Force won by 25
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Air Force with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
124–78 (61%) · Yr 17 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
28–45 (38%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 3 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself