Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Albertsons Stadium
Boise, ID
·
Turf
·
36,387 cap
North Dakota✈ 964 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Boise State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Boise State -15
O/U 58.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
North Dakota 2023 Schedule
North Dakota's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/16 | North Dakota at Boise State | +15.0L18–42 | 58.0 | L18–42 | O | N |
Boise State 2023 Schedule
Boise State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Boise State at Washington | +14.0L19–56 | 59.0 | L19–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Boise State vs UCF | +3.0L16–18 | 58.5 | L16–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Boise State vs North Dakota | -15.0W42–18 | 58.0 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Boise State at San Diego State | -6.5W34–31 | 46.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Boise State at Memphis | +3.0L32–35 | 58.0 | L32–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Boise State vs San José State | -8.0W35–27 | 57.5 | W35–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Boise State at Colorado State | -7.5L30–31 | 60.0 | L30–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Boise State vs Wyoming | -4.5W32–7 | 48.5 | W32–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Boise State at Fresno State | +2.5L30–37 | 53.5 | L30–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Boise State vs New Mexico | -27.5W42–14 | 58.5 | W42–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Boise State at Utah State | -5.5W45–10 | 62.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Boise State vs Air Force | -6.5W27–19 | 44.5 | W27–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Boise State at UNLV | -2.5W44–20 | 58.0 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Boise State vs UCLA | +6.5L22–35 | 46.0 | L22–35 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Dakota Edge
North Dakota +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +60.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓