Utah State at Air Force Week 3 College Football Matchup Utah State at Air Force Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 16 2023 · Week 3 · 🏟 Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO · Turf · 46,692 cap
Utah State✈ 413 miSame TZ
21 39
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah State
19
Air Force
32
P&R Line Air Force -13
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Air Force -9 · O/U 45.5
Matchup Prediction
Air Force has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Air Force entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Air Force wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Air Force wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Air Force -9
O/U 45.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Air Force · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2023 Schedule
Utah State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Utah State at Iowa+24.0L14–2443.5L14–24UY
Sat 9/9Utah State vs Idaho State-24.0W78–2861.0W78–28OY
Fri 9/15Utah State at Air Force+9.0L21–3945.5L21–39ON
Sat 9/23Utah State vs James Madison+5.5L38–4553.5L38–45ON
Sat 9/30Utah State at UConn-4.0W34–3350.5W34–33ON
Sat 10/7Utah State vs Colorado State+3.0W44–2462.0W44–24OY
Fri 10/13Utah State vs Fresno State+5.5L32–3756.0L32–37OY
Sat 10/21Utah State at San José State+4.0L21–4265.0L21–42UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4Utah State at San Diego State-2.0W32–2456.5W32–24UY
Sat 11/11Utah State vs Nevada-14.5W41–2454.5W41–24OY
Sat 11/18Utah State vs Boise State+5.5L10–4562.5L10–45UN
Fri 11/24Utah State at New Mexico-4.5W44–4158.5W44–41ON
Sat 12/23Utah State vs Georgia State-2.0L22–4558.0L22–45ON
Air Force 2023 Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.0W42–751.0W42–7UN
Sat 9/9Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.5W13–336.5W13–3UN
Fri 9/15Air Force vs Utah State-9.0W39–2145.5W39–21OY
Fri 9/22Air Force at San José State-6.0W45–2045.5W45–20OY
Sat 9/30Air Force vs San Diego State-10.5W49–1043.5W49–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Air Force vs Wyoming-12.5W34–2742.0W34–27ON
Sat 10/21Air Force at Navy-11.0W17–634.0W17–6UN
Sat 10/28Air Force at Colorado State-14.5W30–1347.0W30–13UY
Sat 11/4Air Force vs Army-18.5L3–2332.0L3–23UN
Sat 11/11Air Force at Hawai'i-22.5L13–2747.5L13–27UN
Sat 11/18Air Force vs UNLV-2.5L27–3146.5L27–31ON
Fri 11/24Air Force at Boise State+6.5L19–2744.5L19–27ON
Sat 12/23Air Force vs James Madison-2.5W31–2144.5W31–21OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Air Force PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah State #50
+0.345
Air Force #26
+0.513
Air Force Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #48
+0.546
Air Force #9
+0.815
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah State #24
0.183
Air Force #113
0.144
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #109
+7.234
Air Force #52
+8.459
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah State #67
+0.815
Air Force #31
+0.909
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah State #76
70.8
Air Force #36
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Air Force Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Overall Power Rating
Utah State
-8.3
Air Force
-8.3
Offense Rating
Utah State
10.0
Air Force
8.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah State
18.3
Air Force
16.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Air Force Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah State #65
0.00
Air Force #7
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #112
1.00
Air Force #8
0.00
Air Force +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Air Force Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah State #1
44.2
Air Force #1
71.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #111
49.3
Air Force #46
9.3
Air Force +27.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Air Force
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Air Force
89.5 — 4.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Air Force won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Air Force with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
18–12 (60%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Kyle Cefalo Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Cauthen Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
124–78 (61%) · Yr 17 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself