James Madison at Air Force Week 1 College Football Matchup James Madison at Air Force Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 23 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, TX · Turf · 45,000 cap
James Madison✈ 1,109 mi-1 hr TZ Air Force✈ 602 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
21 31
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
27
JMU +2.5
Air Force
21
P&R Line James Madison -6
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Air Force -2.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
James Madison wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Air Force -2.5
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 James Madison 2nd straight Road Game
James Madison 2023 Schedule
James Madison's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2James Madison vs Bucknell-47.0W38–353.5W38–3UN
Sat 9/9James Madison at Virginia-6.0W36–3540.0W36–35ON
Sat 9/16James Madison at Troy+2.5W16–1446.5W16–14UY
Sat 9/23James Madison at Utah State-5.5W45–3853.5W45–38OY
Sat 9/30James Madison vs South Alabama-1.0W31–2348.5W31–23OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14James Madison vs Georgia Southern-5.5W41–1360.0W41–13UY
Thu 10/19James Madison at Marshall-5.0W20–949.0W20–9UY
Sat 10/28James Madison vs Old Dominion-19.5W30–2748.0W30–27ON
Sat 11/4James Madison at Georgia State-6.0W42–1453.0W42–14OY
Sat 11/11James Madison vs UConn-24.5W44–647.5W44–6OY
Sat 11/18James Madison vs App State-10.0L23–2656.5L23–26UN
Sat 11/25James Madison at Coastal Carolina-9.5W56–1450.5W56–14OY
Sat 12/23James Madison vs Air Force+2.5L21–3144.5L21–31ON
Air Force 2023 Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Air Force vs Robert Morris-47.0W42–751.0W42–7UN
Sat 9/9Air Force vs Sam Houston-13.5W13–336.5W13–3UN
Fri 9/15Air Force vs Utah State-9.0W39–2145.5W39–21OY
Fri 9/22Air Force at San José State-6.0W45–2045.5W45–20OY
Sat 9/30Air Force vs San Diego State-10.5W49–1043.5W49–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Air Force vs Wyoming-12.5W34–2742.0W34–27ON
Sat 10/21Air Force at Navy-11.0W17–634.0W17–6UN
Sat 10/28Air Force at Colorado State-14.5W30–1347.0W30–13UY
Sat 11/4Air Force vs Army-18.5L3–2332.0L3–23UN
Sat 11/11Air Force at Hawai'i-22.5L13–2747.5L13–27UN
Sat 11/18Air Force vs UNLV-2.5L27–3146.5L27–31ON
Fri 11/24Air Force at Boise State+6.5L19–2744.5L19–27ON
Sat 12/23Air Force vs James Madison-2.5W31–2144.5W31–21OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Air Force PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #44
+0.363
Air Force #26
+0.375
Air Force Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #13
+0.687
Air Force #9
+0.746
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #1
0.239
Air Force #113
0.144
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #64
+7.882
Air Force #52
+6.918
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #27
+0.849
Air Force #31
+0.787
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #8
66.6
Air Force #36
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.2
Air Force
-5.2
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
Air Force
12.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
Air Force
17.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #22
1.91
Air Force #7
1.64
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #10
0.55
Air Force #8
0.64
James Madison +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
68.2
Air Force #1
48.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #13
16.7
Air Force #46
34.9
James Madison +19.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Air Force
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Air Force
71.5 — 10.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Air Force won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Curt Cignetti #1
44–8 (85%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Shanahan Yr 2 #1
DC Bryant Haines Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
124–78 (61%) · Yr 17 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself