Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Falcon Stadium
Colorado Springs, CO
·
Turf
·
46,692 cap
Robert Morris✈ 1,308 mi-2 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Air Force
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Air Force entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Air Force wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Air Force wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Air Force -47
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Robert Morris 2023 Schedule
Robert Morris's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Robert Morris at Air Force | +47.0L7–42 | 51.0 | L7–42 | U | Y |
Air Force 2023 Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Air Force vs Robert Morris | -47.0W42–7 | 51.0 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Air Force vs Sam Houston | -13.5W13–3 | 36.5 | W13–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/15 | Air Force vs Utah State | -9.0W39–21 | 45.5 | W39–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Air Force at San José State | -6.0W45–20 | 45.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Air Force vs San Diego State | -10.5W49–10 | 43.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Air Force vs Wyoming | -12.5W34–27 | 42.0 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Air Force at Navy | -11.0W17–6 | 34.0 | W17–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Air Force at Colorado State | -14.5W30–13 | 47.0 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Air Force vs Army | -18.5L3–23 | 32.0 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Air Force at Hawai'i | -22.5L13–27 | 47.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Air Force vs UNLV | -2.5L27–31 | 46.5 | L27–31 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Air Force at Boise State | +6.5L19–27 | 44.5 | L19–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Air Force vs James Madison | -2.5W31–21 | 44.5 | W31–21 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +1.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +68.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓