Sun, Sep 10 2023
·
Week 2
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 NRG Stadium
Houston, TX
·
Turf
·
72,220 cap
Air Force✈ 837 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Air Force wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Air Force -13.5
O/U 36.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Air Force 2023 Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Air Force vs Robert Morris | -47.0W42–7 | 51.0 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Air Force vs Sam Houston | -13.5W13–3 | 36.5 | W13–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/15 | Air Force vs Utah State | -9.0W39–21 | 45.5 | W39–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Air Force at San José State | -6.0W45–20 | 45.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Air Force vs San Diego State | -10.5W49–10 | 43.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Air Force vs Wyoming | -12.5W34–27 | 42.0 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Air Force at Navy | -11.0W17–6 | 34.0 | W17–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Air Force at Colorado State | -14.5W30–13 | 47.0 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Air Force vs Army | -18.5L3–23 | 32.0 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Air Force at Hawai'i | -22.5L13–27 | 47.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Air Force vs UNLV | -2.5L27–31 | 46.5 | L27–31 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Air Force at Boise State | +6.5L19–27 | 44.5 | L19–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Air Force vs James Madison | -2.5W31–21 | 44.5 | W31–21 | O | Y |
Sam Houston 2023 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Sam Houston at BYU | +19.0L0–14 | 46.5 | L0–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Sam Houston vs Air Force | +13.5L3–13 | 36.5 | L3–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Sam Houston at Houston | +11.5L7–38 | 37.0 | L7–38 | O | N |
| Thu 9/28 | Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State | +6.5L28–35 | 36.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Thu 10/5 | Sam Houston at Liberty | +21.0L16–21 | 46.5 | L16–21 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/11 | Sam Houston at New Mexico State | +4.5L13–27 | 43.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Wed 10/18 | Sam Houston vs Florida International | -6.0L27–33 | 42.0 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Wed 10/25 | Sam Houston vs UTEP | -4.0L34–37 | 38.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State | -16.5W24–21 | 41.5 | W24–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech | +8.5W42–27 | 49.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Sam Houston at Western Kentucky | +12.5L23–28 | 52.0 | L23–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee | +3.5W23–20 | 49.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +76.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
124–78 (61%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Mike Thiessen
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brian Knorr
Yr 2
#1
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
85–29 (75%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton Carlin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓