Matchup Prediction
UNLV
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
UNLV wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Air Force -2.5
O/U 46.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Air Force
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UNLV 2023 Schedule
UNLV's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | UNLV vs Bryant | -16.5W44–14 | 66.0 | W44–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | UNLV at Michigan | +38.0L7–35 | 57.5 | L7–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | UNLV vs Vanderbilt | +4.5W40–37 | 56.5 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | UNLV at UTEP | +1.0W45–28 | 49.5 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | UNLV vs Hawai'i | -10.5W44–20 | 58.5 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | UNLV at Nevada | -7.5W45–27 | 51.5 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | UNLV vs Colorado State | -6.5W25–23 | 60.0 | W25–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | UNLV at Fresno State | +10.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | UNLV at New Mexico | -10.0W56–14 | 61.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/10 | UNLV vs Wyoming | -2.5W34–14 | 48.5 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | UNLV at Air Force | +2.5W31–27 | 46.5 | W31–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | UNLV vs San José State | -3.5L31–37 | 58.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 12/2 | UNLV vs Boise State | +2.5L20–44 | 58.0 | L20–44 | O | N |
| Tue 12/26 | UNLV vs Kansas | +8.0L36–49 | 64.5 | L36–49 | O | N |
Air Force 2023 Schedule
Air Force's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Air Force vs Robert Morris | -47.0W42–7 | 51.0 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Air Force vs Sam Houston | -13.5W13–3 | 36.5 | W13–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/15 | Air Force vs Utah State | -9.0W39–21 | 45.5 | W39–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Air Force at San José State | -6.0W45–20 | 45.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Air Force vs San Diego State | -10.5W49–10 | 43.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Air Force vs Wyoming | -12.5W34–27 | 42.0 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Air Force at Navy | -11.0W17–6 | 34.0 | W17–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Air Force at Colorado State | -14.5W30–13 | 47.0 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Air Force vs Army | -18.5L3–23 | 32.0 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Air Force at Hawai'i | -22.5L13–27 | 47.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Air Force vs UNLV | -2.5L27–31 | 46.5 | L27–31 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Air Force at Boise State | +6.5L19–27 | 44.5 | L19–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Air Force vs James Madison | -2.5W31–21 | 44.5 | W31–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Air Force
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UNLV
37.5 — 46.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UNLV won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UNLV. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brennan Marion
Yr 1
#1
DC
Michael Scherer
Yr 1
#1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
124–78 (61%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Mike Thiessen
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brian Knorr
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓