Fri, Sep 1 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
·
Turf
·
65,326 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 972 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami -16.5
O/U 45.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Miami (OH) at Miami | +16.5L3–38 | 45.0 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Miami (OH) at Massachusetts | -7.0W41–28 | 45.0 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Miami (OH) at Cincinnati | +14.5W31–24 | 44.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Miami (OH) vs Delaware State | -40.5W62–20 | 49.5 | W62–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Miami (OH) at Kent State | -14.0W23–3 | 51.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green | -7.5W27–0 | 43.0 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Miami (OH) at Western Michigan | -7.5W34–21 | 46.0 | W34–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +2.0L17–21 | 46.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | +7.5W30–16 | 39.0 | W30–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/8 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -17.5W19–0 | 37.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/15 | Miami (OH) vs Buffalo | -7.5W23–10 | 36.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | -3.5W17–15 | 34.5 | W17–15 | U | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +8.5W23–14 | 46.0 | W23–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Miami (OH) vs App State | +6.5L9–13 | 41.0 | L9–13 | U | Y |
Miami 2023 Schedule
Miami's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Miami vs Miami (OH) | -16.5W38–3 | 45.0 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Miami vs Texas A&M | +3.0W48–33 | 50.5 | W48–33 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/14 | Miami vs Bethune-Cookman | -54.0W48–7 | 63.5 | W48–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Miami at Temple | -23.0W41–7 | 46.5 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Miami vs Georgia Tech | -19.0L20–23 | 57.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Miami at North Carolina | +2.5L31–41 | 57.5 | L31–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Miami vs Clemson | +3.0W28–20 | 48.5 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Miami vs Virginia | -18.5W29–26 | 48.0 | W29–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Miami at NC State | -6.5L6–20 | 44.0 | L6–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Miami at Florida State | +14.5L20–27 | 50.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Miami vs Louisville | -1.5L31–38 | 46.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Miami at Boston College | -13.5W45–20 | 50.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | Miami vs Rutgers | +3.0L24–31 | 41.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami
92.9 — 5.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Miami won by 35
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 2
#1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
8–7 (53%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Shannon Dawson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Guidry
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

