Georgia Tech at Miami Week 6 College Football Matchup Georgia Tech at Miami Matchup - Week 6
Sun, Oct 8 2023 · Week 6 · 🏟 Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL · Turf · 65,326 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 594 miSame TZ
23 20
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia Tech
22
GT +19
Miami
35
P&R Line Miami -13
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami -19 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Miami wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Miami wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami -19
O/U 57.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Miami Coming off BYE
Georgia Tech 2023 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Georgia Tech vs Louisville+7.0L34–3949.5L34–39OY
Sat 9/9Georgia Tech vs South Carolina State-44.0W48–1353.5W48–13ON
Sat 9/16Georgia Tech at Ole Miss+17.0L23–4861.5L23–48ON
Sat 9/23Georgia Tech at Wake Forest+3.5W30–1658.5W30–16UY
Sat 9/30Georgia Tech vs Bowling Green-21.0L27–3849.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/7Georgia Tech at Miami+19.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Georgia Tech vs Boston College-5.5L23–3857.0L23–38ON
Sat 10/28Georgia Tech vs North Carolina+12.0W46–4265.5W46–42OY
Sat 11/4Georgia Tech at Virginia+2.0W45–1757.5W45–17OY
Sat 11/11Georgia Tech at Clemson+17.5L21–4255.5L21–42ON
Sat 11/18Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-6.5W31–2251.5W31–22OY
Sat 11/25Georgia Tech vs Georgia+23.0L23–3159.5L23–31UY
Fri 12/22Georgia Tech vs UCF+6.0W30–1766.5W30–17UY
Miami 2023 Schedule
Miami's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami vs Miami (OH)-16.5W38–345.0W38–3UY
Sat 9/9Miami vs Texas A&M+3.0W48–3350.5W48–33OY
Thu 9/14Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.0W48–763.5W48–7UN
Sat 9/23Miami at Temple-23.0W41–746.5W41–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7Miami vs Georgia Tech-19.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/14Miami at North Carolina+2.5L31–4157.5L31–41ON
Sat 10/21Miami vs Clemson+3.0W28–2048.5W28–20UY
Sat 10/28Miami vs Virginia-18.5W29–2648.0W29–26ON
Sat 11/4Miami at NC State-6.5L6–2044.0L6–20UN
Sat 11/11Miami at Florida State+14.5L20–2750.5L20–27UY
Sat 11/18Miami vs Louisville-1.5L31–3846.5L31–38ON
Fri 11/24Miami at Boston College-13.5W45–2050.5W45–20OY
Thu 12/28Miami vs Rutgers+3.0L24–3141.0L24–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia Tech #32
+0.418
Miami #37
+0.497
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #31
+0.596
Miami #28
+0.681
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #34
0.180
Miami #56
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Georgia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #31
+8.802
Miami #56
+7.819
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #36
+0.837
Miami #52
+0.890
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #18
68.8
Miami #65
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Georgia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia Tech
1.1
Miami
24.1
Offense Rating
Georgia Tech
14.2
Miami
27.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia Tech
13.1
Miami
2.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia Tech #16
1.25
Miami #26
2.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #88
2.00
Miami #49
0.33
Miami +1.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia Tech #1
47.8
Miami #1
80.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #81
40.1
Miami #52
12.4
Miami +32.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Tech
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami
38.7 — 22.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
5–6 (46%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
8–7 (53%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 1 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself