Sat, Oct 21 2023
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH
·
Turf
·
24,286 cap
Toledo✈ 158 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Toledo,
while Game Control favors Miami (OH).
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Toledo wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Miami (OH) wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Toledo -2
O/U 46.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Toledo
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2023 Schedule
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Toledo at Illinois | +7.0L28–30 | 45.5 | L28–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Toledo vs Texas Southern | -40.5W71–3 | 61.0 | W71–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Toledo vs San José State | -9.0W21–17 | 56.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Toledo vs Western Michigan | -21.5W49–31 | 52.5 | W49–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Toledo vs Northern Illinois | -13.0W35–33 | 48.0 | W35–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Toledo at Massachusetts | -19.0W41–24 | 55.5 | W41–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Toledo at Ball State | -17.5W13–6 | 48.5 | W13–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Toledo at Miami (OH) | -2.0W21–17 | 46.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Toledo vs Buffalo | -14.0W31–13 | 47.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/8 | Toledo vs Eastern Michigan | -19.5W49–23 | 45.5 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/14 | Toledo at Bowling Green | -9.5W32–31 | 48.5 | W32–31 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Toledo at Central Michigan | -12.5W32–17 | 54.5 | W32–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/2 | Toledo vs Miami (OH) | -8.5L14–23 | 46.0 | L14–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/30 | Toledo vs Wyoming | +4.5L15–16 | 43.5 | L15–16 | U | Y |
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Miami (OH) at Miami | +16.5L3–38 | 45.0 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Miami (OH) at Massachusetts | -7.0W41–28 | 45.0 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Miami (OH) at Cincinnati | +14.5W31–24 | 44.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Miami (OH) vs Delaware State | -40.5W62–20 | 49.5 | W62–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Miami (OH) at Kent State | -14.0W23–3 | 51.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green | -7.5W27–0 | 43.0 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Miami (OH) at Western Michigan | -7.5W34–21 | 46.0 | W34–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +2.0L17–21 | 46.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | +7.5W30–16 | 39.0 | W30–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/8 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -17.5W19–0 | 37.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/15 | Miami (OH) vs Buffalo | -7.5W23–10 | 36.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | -3.5W17–15 | 34.5 | W17–15 | U | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +8.5W23–14 | 46.0 | W23–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Miami (OH) vs App State | +6.5L9–13 | 41.0 | L9–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +12.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
56–33 (63%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Hallett
Yr 3
#1
DC
Vince Kehres
Yr 3
#1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓