Miami at Boston College Week 13 College Football Matchup Miami at Boston College Matchup - Week 13
Fri, Nov 24 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
Miami✈ 1,243 miSame TZ
Away
45 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami
32
BC +13.5
Boston College
20
P&R Line Miami -12.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami -13.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Miami wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami -13.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami 2023 Schedule
Miami's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami vs Miami (OH)-16.5W38–345.0W38–3UY
Sat 9/9Miami vs Texas A&M+3.0W48–3350.5W48–33OY
Thu 9/14Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.0W48–763.5W48–7UN
Sat 9/23Miami at Temple-23.0W41–746.5W41–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7Miami vs Georgia Tech-19.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/14Miami at North Carolina+2.5L31–4157.5L31–41ON
Sat 10/21Miami vs Clemson+3.0W28–2048.5W28–20UY
Sat 10/28Miami vs Virginia-18.5W29–2648.0W29–26ON
Sat 11/4Miami at NC State-6.5L6–2044.0L6–20UN
Sat 11/11Miami at Florida State+14.5L20–2750.5L20–27UY
Sat 11/18Miami vs Louisville-1.5L31–3846.5L31–38ON
Fri 11/24Miami at Boston College-13.5W45–2050.5W45–20OY
Thu 12/28Miami vs Rutgers+3.0L24–3141.0L24–31ON
Boston College 2023 Schedule
Boston College's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Boston College vs Northern Illinois-8.0L24–2750.0L24–27ON
Sat 9/9Boston College vs Holy Cross-10.0W31–2852.0W31–28ON
Sat 9/16Boston College vs Florida State+25.5L29–3148.0L29–31OY
Sat 9/23Boston College at Louisville+14.0L28–5653.0L28–56ON
Sat 9/30Boston College vs Virginia-5.0W27–2452.5W27–24UN
Sat 10/7Boston College at Army+2.5W27–2447.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Boston College at Georgia Tech+5.5W38–2357.0W38–23OY
Sat 10/28Boston College vs UConn-14.5W21–1449.0W21–14UN
Fri 11/3Boston College at Syracuse+3.0W17–1051.0W17–10UY
Sat 11/11Boston College vs Virginia Tech+2.5L22–4848.5L22–48ON
Thu 11/16Boston College at Pittsburgh+1.0L16–2447.0L16–24UN
Fri 11/24Boston College vs Miami+13.5L20–4550.5L20–45ON
Thu 12/28Boston College vs SMU+13.5W23–1449.0W23–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami #37
+0.523
Boston College #62
+0.347
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami #28
+0.820
Boston College #103
+0.391
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami #56
0.167
Boston College #130
0.117
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami #56
+8.400
Boston College #66
+8.450
Boston College Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami #52
+0.864
Boston College #63
+0.809
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami #65
70.6
Boston College #94
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami
24.1
Boston College
-6.1
Offense Rating
Miami
27.0
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami
2.9
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami #26
1.30
Boston College #110
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #49
1.10
Boston College #84
1.20
Miami +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami #1
44.9
Boston College #1
33.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #52
33.3
Boston College #88
44.2
Miami +11.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
8–7 (53%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 1 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
16–22 (42%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Steve Shimko Yr 1 #1
DC Aazaar Abdul-Rahim Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself