Miami (OH) at Ball State Week 13 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Ball State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 25 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 Scheumann Stadium Muncie, IN · Turf · 22,500 cap
17 15
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
25
M-OH -3.5
Ball State
14
P&R Line Miami (OH) -11
P&R Total O/U 38
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -3.5 · O/U 34.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Miami (OH) wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -3.5
O/U 34.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH) · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Ball State 2nd straight Home Game
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami (OH) at Miami+16.5L3–3845.0L3–38UN
Sat 9/9Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.0W41–2845.0W41–28OY
Sat 9/16Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.5W31–2444.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/23Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.5W62–2049.5W62–20OY
Sat 9/30Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.0W23–351.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/7Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.5W27–043.0W27–0UY
Sat 10/14Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.5W34–2146.0W34–21OY
Sat 10/21Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.0L17–2146.5L17–21UN
Sat 10/28Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.5W30–1639.0W30–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/8Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.5W19–037.5W19–0UY
Wed 11/15Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.5W23–1036.5W23–10UY
Sat 11/25Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.5W17–1534.5W17–15UN
Sat 12/2Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.5W23–1446.0W23–14UY
Sat 12/16Miami (OH) vs App State+6.5L9–1341.0L9–13UY
Ball State 2023 Schedule
Ball State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Ball State at Kentucky+25.0L14–4449.0L14–44ON
Sat 9/9Ball State at Georgia+42.0L3–4552.5L3–45UY
Sat 9/16Ball State vs Indiana State-26.0W45–745.0W45–7OY
Sat 9/23Ball State vs Georgia Southern+6.0L3–4060.0L3–40UN
Sat 9/30Ball State at Western Michigan+1.5L24–4250.0L24–42ON
Sat 10/7Ball State at Eastern Michigan+2.5L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Sat 10/14Ball State vs Toledo+17.5L6–1348.5L6–13UY
Sat 10/21Ball State vs Central Michigan+5.0W24–1742.0W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/1Ball State at Bowling Green+4.5L21–2439.5L21–24OY
Tue 11/7Ball State at Northern Illinois+9.5W20–1743.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/18Ball State vs Kent State-10.5W34–341.5W34–3UY
Sat 11/25Ball State vs Miami (OH)+3.5L15–1734.5L15–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #78
+0.359
Ball State #97
+0.239
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #59
+0.582
Ball State #128
+0.248
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #40
0.175
Ball State #60
0.165
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #57
+7.800
Ball State #105
+6.371
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #122
+0.783
Ball State #95
+0.803
Ball State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #2
64.6
Ball State #90
71.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Ball State
-21.7
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Ball State
5.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Ball State
27.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #82
1.20
Ball State #127
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #41
0.50
Ball State #111
1.10
Miami (OH) +0.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
60.2
Ball State #1
32.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #22
26.1
Ball State #97
47.6
Miami (OH) +27.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
17.5 — 58.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 1 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
34–50 (41%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 1 #1
DC Tyler Stockton Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself