Sat, Sep 23 2023
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Week 4
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🏟 Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH
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Turf
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24,286 cap
Delaware State✈ 491 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Miami (OH) wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -40.5
O/U 49.5
Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado)
Delaware State 2023 Schedule
Delaware State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/9 | Delaware State at Army | +39.5L0–57 | 44.0 | L0–57 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Delaware State at Miami (OH) | +40.5L20–62 | 49.5 | L20–62 | O | N |
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Miami (OH) at Miami | +16.5L3–38 | 45.0 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Miami (OH) at Massachusetts | -7.0W41–28 | 45.0 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Miami (OH) at Cincinnati | +14.5W31–24 | 44.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Miami (OH) vs Delaware State | -40.5W62–20 | 49.5 | W62–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Miami (OH) at Kent State | -14.0W23–3 | 51.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green | -7.5W27–0 | 43.0 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Miami (OH) at Western Michigan | -7.5W34–21 | 46.0 | W34–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +2.0L17–21 | 46.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | +7.5W30–16 | 39.0 | W30–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/8 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -17.5W19–0 | 37.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/15 | Miami (OH) vs Buffalo | -7.5W23–10 | 36.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | -3.5W17–15 | 34.5 | W17–15 | U | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +8.5W23–14 | 46.0 | W23–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Miami (OH) vs App State | +6.5L9–13 | 41.0 | L9–13 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Delaware State Edge
Delaware State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +34.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓