Miami (OH) at Massachusetts Week 2 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 9 2023 · Week 2 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 665 miSame TZ
41 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
31
Massachusetts
17
P&R Line Miami (OH) -13.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -7 · O/U 45.0
Matchup Prediction
Massachusetts has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Massachusetts entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Massachusetts wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Massachusetts wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -7
O/U 45.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH) · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Miami (OH) 2nd straight Road Game
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami (OH) at Miami+16.5L3–3845.0L3–38UN
Sat 9/9Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.0W41–2845.0W41–28OY
Sat 9/16Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.5W31–2444.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/23Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.5W62–2049.5W62–20OY
Sat 9/30Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.0W23–351.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/7Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.5W27–043.0W27–0UY
Sat 10/14Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.5W34–2146.0W34–21OY
Sat 10/21Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.0L17–2146.5L17–21UN
Sat 10/28Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.5W30–1639.0W30–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/8Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.5W19–037.5W19–0UY
Wed 11/15Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.5W23–1036.5W23–10UY
Sat 11/25Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.5W17–1534.5W17–15UN
Sat 12/2Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.5W23–1446.0W23–14UY
Sat 12/16Miami (OH) vs App State+6.5L9–1341.0L9–13UY
Massachusetts 2023 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.0W41–3045.5W41–30OY
Sat 9/2Massachusetts at Auburn+35.0L14–5952.0L14–59ON
Sat 9/9Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.0L28–4145.0L28–41ON
Sat 9/16Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.0L17–1950.0L17–19UY
Sat 9/23Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.5L31–3448.5L31–34ON
Sat 9/30Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.5L28–5255.5L28–52ON
Sat 10/7Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.0L24–4155.5L24–41OY
Sat 10/14Massachusetts at Penn State+42.0L0–6355.0L0–63ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Massachusetts at Army+10.0W21–1449.5W21–14UY
Sat 11/4Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.5W31–2157.5W31–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/18Massachusetts at Liberty+26.5L25–4964.5L25–49OY
Sat 11/25Massachusetts vs UConn-2.5L18–3151.0L18–31UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #78
+0.482
Massachusetts #72
+0.285
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #59
+0.619
Massachusetts #99
+0.378
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #40
0.175
Massachusetts #97
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #57
+8.293
Massachusetts #82
+6.788
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #122
+0.851
Massachusetts #68
+0.825
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #2
64.6
Massachusetts #123
73.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Massachusetts Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #82
0.00
Massachusetts #115
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #41
3.00
Massachusetts #130
1.50
Massachusetts +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Massachusetts Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
5.4
Massachusetts #1
27.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #22
92.9
Massachusetts #132
57.1
Massachusetts +22.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Massachusetts with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 1 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
2–14 (13%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Steve Casula Yr 2 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself