Miami (OH) at Western Michigan Week 7 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Western Michigan Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 14 2023 · Week 7 · 🏟 Waldo Stadium Kalamazoo, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 196 miSame TZ
34 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
30
Western Michigan
18
P&R Line Miami (OH) -11.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -7.5 · O/U 46.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Miami (OH) wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -7.5
O/U 46.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami (OH) · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami (OH) at Miami+16.5L3–3845.0L3–38UN
Sat 9/9Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.0W41–2845.0W41–28OY
Sat 9/16Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.5W31–2444.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/23Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.5W62–2049.5W62–20OY
Sat 9/30Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.0W23–351.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/7Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.5W27–043.0W27–0UY
Sat 10/14Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.5W34–2146.0W34–21OY
Sat 10/21Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.0L17–2146.5L17–21UN
Sat 10/28Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.5W30–1639.0W30–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/8Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.5W19–037.5W19–0UY
Wed 11/15Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.5W23–1036.5W23–10UY
Sat 11/25Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.5W17–1534.5W17–15UN
Sat 12/2Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.5W23–1446.0W23–14UY
Sat 12/16Miami (OH) vs App State+6.5L9–1341.0L9–13UY
Western Michigan 2023 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31Western Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-14.0W35–1758.0W35–17UY
Sat 9/9Western Michigan at Syracuse+24.5L7–4856.5L7–48UN
Sat 9/16Western Michigan at Iowa+28.5L10–4143.5L10–41ON
Sat 9/23Western Michigan at Toledo+21.5L31–4952.5L31–49OY
Sat 9/30Western Michigan vs Ball State-1.5W42–2450.0W42–24OY
Sat 10/7Western Michigan at Mississippi State+21.5L28–4154.5L28–41OY
Sat 10/14Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)+7.5L21–3446.0L21–34ON
Sat 10/21Western Michigan at Ohio+16.5L17–2052.0L17–20UY
Sat 10/28Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-3.0W45–2150.0W45–21OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/7Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-3.5W38–2857.5W38–28OY
Tue 11/14Western Michigan at Northern Illinois+4.5L0–2455.5L0–24UN
Tue 11/21Western Michigan vs Bowling Green+2.0L10–3454.5L10–34UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #78
+0.393
Western Michigan #85
+0.259
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #59
+0.646
Western Michigan #96
+0.394
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #40
0.175
Western Michigan #13
0.194
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #57
+8.142
Western Michigan #72
+6.946
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #122
+0.808
Western Michigan #90
+0.807
Even
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #2
64.6
Western Michigan #101
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Western Michigan
-5.3
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Western Michigan
14.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Western Michigan
19.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #82
1.00
Western Michigan #114
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #41
0.60
Western Michigan #94
2.20
Miami (OH) +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
59.9
Western Michigan #1
39.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #22
25.5
Western Michigan #103
46.6
Miami (OH) +20.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 1 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
1–2 (33%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Billy Cosh Yr 1 #1
DC Lou Esposito Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself