Miami (OH) at App State Week 1 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at App State Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 16 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 44,206 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 780 miSame TZ App State✈ 526 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
9 13
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
22
M-OH +6.5
App State
23
P&R Line Miami (OH) -0
P&R Total O/U 46
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas App State -6.5 · O/U 41.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
App State -6.5
O/U 41.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Miami (OH) 3rd straight Road Game
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami (OH) at Miami+16.5L3–3845.0L3–38UN
Sat 9/9Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.0W41–2845.0W41–28OY
Sat 9/16Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.5W31–2444.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/23Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.5W62–2049.5W62–20OY
Sat 9/30Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.0W23–351.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/7Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.5W27–043.0W27–0UY
Sat 10/14Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.5W34–2146.0W34–21OY
Sat 10/21Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.0L17–2146.5L17–21UN
Sat 10/28Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.5W30–1639.0W30–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/8Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.5W19–037.5W19–0UY
Wed 11/15Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.5W23–1036.5W23–10UY
Sat 11/25Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.5W17–1534.5W17–15UN
Sat 12/2Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.5W23–1446.0W23–14UY
Sat 12/16Miami (OH) vs App State+6.5L9–1341.0L9–13UY
App State 2023 Schedule
App State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2App State vs Gardner-Webb-22.5W45–2451.0W45–24ON
Sat 9/9App State at North Carolina+18.0L34–4058.0L34–40OY
Sat 9/16App State vs East Carolina-7.5W43–2848.5W43–28OY
Sat 9/23App State at Wyoming+3.0L19–2245.0L19–22UY
Sat 9/30App State at UL Monroe-13.5W41–4050.5W41–40ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/10App State vs Coastal Carolina-4.5L24–2759.0L24–27UN
Sat 10/21App State at Old Dominion-6.0L21–2856.0L21–28UN
Sat 10/28App State vs Southern Miss-16.0W48–3855.5W48–38ON
Sat 11/4App State vs Marshall-3.0W31–957.5W31–9UY
Sat 11/11App State at Georgia State+2.5W42–1462.5W42–14UY
Sat 11/18App State at James Madison+10.0W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/25App State vs Georgia Southern-7.5W55–2762.5W55–27OY
Sat 12/2App State at Troy+6.5L23–4951.5L23–49ON
Sat 12/16App State vs Miami (OH)-6.5W13–941.0W13–9UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #78
+0.371
App State #41
+0.343
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #59
+0.513
App State #19
+0.641
App State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #40
0.175
App State #26
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
App State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #57
+7.134
App State #77
+6.861
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #122
+0.791
App State #28
+0.861
App State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #2
64.6
App State #72
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
App State
-9.7
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
App State
9.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
App State
18.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #82
1.08
App State #61
0.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #41
0.50
App State #15
0.83
Miami (OH) +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
60.3
App State #1
42.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #22
24.7
App State #35
31.9
Miami (OH) +17.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
App State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
App State
55.4 — 16.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
App State won by 4
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 1 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
App State
Shawn Clark #1
28–14 (67%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Frank Ponce Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Sloan Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself