Bowling Green at Miami (OH) Week 6 College Football Matchup Bowling Green at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 7 2023 · Week 6 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
Bowling Green✈ 141 miSame TZ
0 27
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Bowling Green
18
M-OH -7.5
Miami (OH)
27
P&R Line Miami (OH) -9
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -7.5 · O/U 43.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Miami (OH) wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -7.5
O/U 43.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH) · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Bowling Green 2nd straight Road Game
Bowling Green 2023 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Bowling Green at Liberty+8.5L24–3448.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/9Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois-17.0W38–1548.0W38–15OY
Sat 9/16Bowling Green at Michigan+40.5L6–3153.5L6–31UY
Sat 9/23Bowling Green vs Ohio+13.0L7–3845.0L7–38UN
Sat 9/30Bowling Green at Georgia Tech+21.0W38–2749.5W38–27OY
Sat 10/7Bowling Green at Miami (OH)+7.5L0–2743.0L0–27UN
Sat 10/14Bowling Green at Buffalo+3.0W24–1444.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/21Bowling Green vs Akron-7.0W41–1437.0W41–14OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/1Bowling Green vs Ball State-4.5W24–2139.5W24–21ON
Wed 11/8Bowling Green at Kent State-10.5W49–1941.5W49–19OY
Tue 11/14Bowling Green vs Toledo+9.5L31–3248.5L31–32OY
Tue 11/21Bowling Green at Western Michigan-2.0W34–1054.5W34–10UY
Tue 12/26Bowling Green vs Minnesota+2.5L24–3045.0L24–30ON
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami (OH) at Miami+16.5L3–3845.0L3–38UN
Sat 9/9Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.0W41–2845.0W41–28OY
Sat 9/16Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.5W31–2444.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/23Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.5W62–2049.5W62–20OY
Sat 9/30Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.0W23–351.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/7Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.5W27–043.0W27–0UY
Sat 10/14Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.5W34–2146.0W34–21OY
Sat 10/21Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.0L17–2146.5L17–21UN
Sat 10/28Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.5W30–1639.0W30–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/8Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.5W19–037.5W19–0UY
Wed 11/15Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.5W23–1036.5W23–10UY
Sat 11/25Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.5W17–1534.5W17–15UN
Sat 12/2Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.5W23–1446.0W23–14UY
Sat 12/16Miami (OH) vs App State+6.5L9–1341.0L9–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Bowling Green #74
+0.283
Miami (OH) #78
+0.322
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #72
+0.472
Miami (OH) #59
+0.518
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #41
0.174
Miami (OH) #40
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #87
+6.709
Miami (OH) #57
+7.696
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #81
+0.817
Miami (OH) #122
+0.782
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #4
66.2
Miami (OH) #2
64.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Bowling Green
-9.7
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Bowling Green
10.9
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Bowling Green
20.7
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Bowling Green #104
0.50
Miami (OH) #82
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #44
1.00
Miami (OH) #41
0.75
Miami (OH) +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Bowling Green #1
31.1
Miami (OH) #1
56.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #66
59.8
Miami (OH) #22
29.0
Miami (OH) +24.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
79.6 — 8.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
14–31 (31%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 1 #1
DC Sammy Lawanson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 1 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself