Louisville at Miami Week 12 College Football Matchup Louisville at Miami Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 18 2023 · Week 12 · 🏟 Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL · Turf · 65,326 cap
Louisville✈ 905 miSame TZ
38 31
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisville
24
MIAMI -1.5
Miami
26
P&R Line Miami -2.5
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami -1.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Louisville has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisville entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Louisville wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami -1.5
O/U 46.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisville · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2023 Schedule
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.0W39–3449.5W39–34ON
Thu 9/7Louisville vs Murray State-43.5W56–055.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/16Louisville vs Indiana-10.0W21–1451.0W21–14UN
Sat 9/23Louisville vs Boston College-14.0W56–2853.0W56–28OY
Fri 9/29Louisville at NC State-3.5W13–1056.5W13–10UN
Sat 10/7Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.5W33–2053.0W33–20UY
Sat 10/14Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.5L21–3844.5L21–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Louisville vs Duke-5.0W23–047.0W23–0UY
Sat 11/4Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.5W34–348.5W34–3UY
Thu 11/9Louisville vs Virginia-20.5W31–2449.5W31–24ON
Sat 11/18Louisville at Miami+1.5W38–3146.5W38–31OY
Sat 11/25Louisville vs Kentucky-7.5L31–3847.5L31–38ON
Sat 12/2Louisville vs Florida State+3.5L6–1651.0L6–16UN
Wed 12/27Louisville vs USC-4.5L28–4258.0L28–42ON
Miami 2023 Schedule
Miami's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami vs Miami (OH)-16.5W38–345.0W38–3UY
Sat 9/9Miami vs Texas A&M+3.0W48–3350.5W48–33OY
Thu 9/14Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.0W48–763.5W48–7UN
Sat 9/23Miami at Temple-23.0W41–746.5W41–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/7Miami vs Georgia Tech-19.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/14Miami at North Carolina+2.5L31–4157.5L31–41ON
Sat 10/21Miami vs Clemson+3.0W28–2048.5W28–20UY
Sat 10/28Miami vs Virginia-18.5W29–2648.0W29–26ON
Sat 11/4Miami at NC State-6.5L6–2044.0L6–20UN
Sat 11/11Miami at Florida State+14.5L20–2750.5L20–27UY
Sat 11/18Miami vs Louisville-1.5L31–3846.5L31–38ON
Fri 11/24Miami at Boston College-13.5W45–2050.5W45–20OY
Thu 12/28Miami vs Rutgers+3.0L24–3141.0L24–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Louisville PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisville #46
+0.371
Miami #37
+0.351
Louisville Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisville #64
+0.521
Miami #28
+0.582
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisville #23
0.186
Miami #56
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisville Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisville #53
+8.572
Miami #56
+7.884
Louisville Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisville #11
+0.869
Miami #52
+0.791
Louisville Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisville #31
69.2
Miami #65
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisville Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisville
10.8
Miami
24.1
Offense Rating
Louisville
22.0
Miami
27.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisville
11.2
Miami
2.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisville Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisville #18
2.00
Miami #26
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisville #20
0.33
Miami #49
1.11
Louisville +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisville Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisville #1
66.3
Miami #1
45.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisville #21
17.7
Miami #52
33.2
Louisville +20.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami
36.2 — 33.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisville won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisville with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Brohm Yr 1 #1
DC Ron English Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
8–7 (53%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 1 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself