Thu, Nov 9 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH
·
Turf
·
24,286 cap
Akron✈ 200 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH)
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Miami (OH) wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -17.5
O/U 37.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH)
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Akron 2023 Schedule
Akron's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Akron at Temple | +9.5L21–24 | 55.0 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Akron vs Morgan State | -25.0W24–21 | 46.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Akron at Kentucky | +25.0L3–35 | 48.5 | L3–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Akron at Indiana | +16.5L27–29 | 45.5 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Akron vs Buffalo | -3.0L10–13 | 53.0 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Akron vs Northern Illinois | +4.0L14–55 | 42.5 | L14–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Akron at Central Michigan | +10.5L10–17 | 44.0 | L10–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Akron at Bowling Green | +7.0L14–41 | 37.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Akron vs Kent State | -4.0W31–27 | 39.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Wed 11/8 | Akron at Miami (OH) | +17.5L0–19 | 37.5 | L0–19 | U | N |
| Tue 11/14 | Akron at Eastern Michigan | +3.5L27–30 | 39.5 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Akron vs Ohio | +13.5L14–25 | 41.5 | L14–25 | U | Y |
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Miami (OH) at Miami | +16.5L3–38 | 45.0 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Miami (OH) at Massachusetts | -7.0W41–28 | 45.0 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Miami (OH) at Cincinnati | +14.5W31–24 | 44.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Miami (OH) vs Delaware State | -40.5W62–20 | 49.5 | W62–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Miami (OH) at Kent State | -14.0W23–3 | 51.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green | -7.5W27–0 | 43.0 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Miami (OH) at Western Michigan | -7.5W34–21 | 46.0 | W34–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +2.0L17–21 | 46.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | +7.5W30–16 | 39.0 | W30–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/8 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -17.5W19–0 | 37.5 | W19–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/15 | Miami (OH) vs Buffalo | -7.5W23–10 | 36.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | -3.5W17–15 | 34.5 | W17–15 | U | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Miami (OH) vs Toledo | +8.5W23–14 | 46.0 | W23–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Miami (OH) vs App State | +6.5L9–13 | 41.0 | L9–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +30.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
84.8 — 8.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
3–12 (20%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Billy Fessler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 2
#1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

