Akron at Miami (OH) Week 11 College Football Matchup Akron at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 11
Thu, Nov 9 2023 · Week 11 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
Akron✈ 200 miSame TZ
Away
0 19
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Akron
9
Miami (OH)
31
P&R Line Miami (OH) -22
P&R Total O/U 40
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -17.5 · O/U 37.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Miami (OH) wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -17.5
O/U 37.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH) · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Miami (OH) Coming off BYE
Akron 2023 Schedule
Akron's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Akron at Temple+9.5L21–2455.0L21–24UY
Sat 9/9Akron vs Morgan State-25.0W24–2146.0W24–21UN
Sat 9/16Akron at Kentucky+25.0L3–3548.5L3–35UN
Sat 9/23Akron at Indiana+16.5L27–2945.5L27–29OY
Sat 9/30Akron vs Buffalo-3.0L10–1353.0L10–13UN
Sat 10/7Akron vs Northern Illinois+4.0L14–5542.5L14–55ON
Sat 10/14Akron at Central Michigan+10.5L10–1744.0L10–17UY
Sat 10/21Akron at Bowling Green+7.0L14–4137.0L14–41ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/1Akron vs Kent State-4.0W31–2739.0W31–27ON
Wed 11/8Akron at Miami (OH)+17.5L0–1937.5L0–19UN
Tue 11/14Akron at Eastern Michigan+3.5L27–3039.5L27–30OY
Fri 11/24Akron vs Ohio+13.5L14–2541.5L14–25UY
Miami (OH) 2023 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Miami (OH) at Miami+16.5L3–3845.0L3–38UN
Sat 9/9Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-7.0W41–2845.0W41–28OY
Sat 9/16Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+14.5W31–2444.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/23Miami (OH) vs Delaware State-40.5W62–2049.5W62–20OY
Sat 9/30Miami (OH) at Kent State-14.0W23–351.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/7Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-7.5W27–043.0W27–0UY
Sat 10/14Miami (OH) at Western Michigan-7.5W34–2146.0W34–21OY
Sat 10/21Miami (OH) vs Toledo+2.0L17–2146.5L17–21UN
Sat 10/28Miami (OH) at Ohio+7.5W30–1639.0W30–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/8Miami (OH) vs Akron-17.5W19–037.5W19–0UY
Wed 11/15Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.5W23–1036.5W23–10UY
Sat 11/25Miami (OH) at Ball State-3.5W17–1534.5W17–15UN
Sat 12/2Miami (OH) vs Toledo+8.5W23–1446.0W23–14UY
Sat 12/16Miami (OH) vs App State+6.5L9–1341.0L9–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Akron #129
+0.137
Miami (OH) #78
+0.300
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Akron #127
+0.264
Miami (OH) #59
+0.489
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Akron #110
0.144
Miami (OH) #40
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Akron #131
+5.653
Miami (OH) #57
+7.770
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Akron #124
+0.768
Miami (OH) #122
+0.758
Akron Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Akron #112
72.4
Miami (OH) #2
64.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Akron
-12.1
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Akron
9.8
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Akron
21.9
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Akron #130
0.38
Miami (OH) #82
1.13
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Akron #71
1.25
Miami (OH) #41
0.63
Miami (OH) +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Akron #1
26.9
Miami (OH) #1
57.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Akron #99
49.7
Miami (OH) #22
29.5
Miami (OH) +30.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
84.8 — 8.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH) with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
3–12 (20%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Billy Fessler Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Tibesar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
47–60 (44%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 1 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself