North Carolina at Duke Week 7 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Duke Matchup - Week 7
Sun, Oct 16 2022 · Week 7 · 🏟 Wallace Wade Stadium Durham, NC · Turf · 40,000 cap
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Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
32
DUKE +7
Duke
33
P&R Line North Carolina -0.5
P&R Total O/U 66
Confidence 90 High
Vegas North Carolina -7 · O/U 70.0
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
North Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -7
O/U 70.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Duke · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 North Carolina 2nd straight Road Game
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.0W56–2455.0W56–24ON
Sat 9/3North Carolina at App State+3.0W63–6156.0W63–61OY
Sat 9/10North Carolina at Georgia State-7.0W35–2864.0W35–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.5L32–4555.0L32–45ON
Sat 10/1North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.5W41–1057.0W41–10UY
Sat 10/8North Carolina at Miami+4.0W27–2467.5W27–24UY
Sat 10/15North Carolina at Duke-7.0W38–3570.0W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.5W42–2465.5W42–24OY
Sat 11/5North Carolina at Virginia-7.0W31–2861.5W31–28UN
Sat 11/12North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.5W36–3479.0W36–34UY
Sat 11/19North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.5L17–2163.5L17–21UN
Fri 11/25North Carolina vs NC State-6.5L27–3056.0L27–30ON
Sat 12/3North Carolina vs Clemson+7.5L10–3964.0L10–39UN
Wed 12/28North Carolina vs Oregon+13.0L27–2876.0L27–28UY
Duke 2022 Schedule
Duke's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Duke vs Temple-9.5W30–051.5W30–0UY
Sat 9/10Duke at Northwestern+10.0W31–2356.5W31–23UY
Sat 9/17Duke vs North Carolina A&T-30.5W49–2053.0W49–20ON
Sat 9/24Duke at Kansas+7.5L27–3566.0L27–35UN
Sat 10/1Duke vs Virginia-2.0W38–1755.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/8Duke at Georgia Tech-3.5L20–2354.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/15Duke vs North Carolina+7.0L35–3870.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/22Duke at Miami+10.0W45–2159.0W45–21OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/4Duke at Boston College-11.5W38–3147.0W38–31ON
Sat 11/12Duke vs Virginia Tech-10.0W24–750.0W24–7UY
Sat 11/19Duke at Pittsburgh+6.5L26–2849.0L26–28OY
Sat 11/26Duke vs Wake Forest+3.0W34–3167.0W34–31UY
Wed 12/28Duke vs UCF-3.5W30–1363.0W30–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Duke PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Duke
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina
+0.485
Duke
+0.532
Duke Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+0.712
Duke
+0.673
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina
0.123
Duke
0.199
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Duke Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+8.418
Duke
+8.606
Duke Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina
+0.903
Duke
+0.924
Duke Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina
70.3
Duke
68.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Duke Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Duke Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Duke
3.0
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Duke
15.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Duke
12.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #20
2.40
Duke #26
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #80
1.80
Duke #13
0.33
North Carolina +1.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
66.1
Duke #1
62.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
21.4
Duke #48
29.4
North Carolina +3.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Duke
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
29.5 — 49.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
21–17 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 2 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Duke
Mike Elko #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin Johns Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Smith Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself