Pittsburgh at North Carolina Week 9 College Football Matchup Pittsburgh at North Carolina Matchup - Week 9
Sun, Oct 30 2022 · Week 9 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 318 miSame TZ
24 42
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Pittsburgh
30
North Carolina
32
P&R Line North Carolina -1.5
P&R Total O/U 62
Confidence 90 High
Vegas North Carolina -2.5 · O/U 65.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
North Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -2.5
O/U 65.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 North Carolina Coming off BYE 🚌 Pittsburgh 2nd straight Road Game
Pittsburgh 2022 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1Pittsburgh vs West Virginia-7.5W38–3150.0W38–31ON
Sat 9/10Pittsburgh vs Tennessee+6.0L27–3463.0L27–34UN
Sat 9/17Pittsburgh at Western Michigan-10.0W34–1346.0W34–13OY
Sat 9/24Pittsburgh vs Rhode Island-32.5W45–2455.0W45–24ON
Sat 10/1Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech-21.5L21–2647.0L21–26UN
Sat 10/8Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech-14.5W45–2942.0W45–29OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Pittsburgh at Louisville+1.5L10–2455.0L10–24UN
Sat 10/29Pittsburgh at North Carolina+2.5L24–4265.5L24–42ON
Sat 11/5Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-3.5W19–947.5W19–9UY
Sat 11/12Pittsburgh at Virginia-5.5W37–741.5W37–7OY
Sat 11/19Pittsburgh vs Duke-6.5W28–2649.0W28–26ON
Sat 11/26Pittsburgh at Miami-5.5W42–1643.0W42–16OY
Fri 12/30Pittsburgh vs UCLA+9.0W37–3555.0W37–35OY
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.0W56–2455.0W56–24ON
Sat 9/3North Carolina at App State+3.0W63–6156.0W63–61OY
Sat 9/10North Carolina at Georgia State-7.0W35–2864.0W35–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.5L32–4555.0L32–45ON
Sat 10/1North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.5W41–1057.0W41–10UY
Sat 10/8North Carolina at Miami+4.0W27–2467.5W27–24UY
Sat 10/15North Carolina at Duke-7.0W38–3570.0W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.5W42–2465.5W42–24OY
Sat 11/5North Carolina at Virginia-7.0W31–2861.5W31–28UN
Sat 11/12North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.5W36–3479.0W36–34UY
Sat 11/19North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.5L17–2163.5L17–21UN
Fri 11/25North Carolina vs NC State-6.5L27–3056.0L27–30ON
Sat 12/3North Carolina vs Clemson+7.5L10–3964.0L10–39UN
Wed 12/28North Carolina vs Oregon+13.0L27–2876.0L27–28UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.470
North Carolina
+0.362
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.666
North Carolina
+0.488
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
0.221
North Carolina
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+8.349
North Carolina
+8.085
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.916
North Carolina
+0.826
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
69.3
North Carolina
70.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Pittsburgh
9.1
North Carolina
-0.1
Offense Rating
Pittsburgh
19.3
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Pittsburgh
10.2
North Carolina
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Pittsburgh #70
1.00
North Carolina #20
2.17
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #40
1.17
North Carolina #80
1.83
North Carolina +1.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Pittsburgh #1
59.8
North Carolina #1
63.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #18
24.4
North Carolina #49
22.5
North Carolina +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
31.5 — 41.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
53–37 (59%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Frank Cignetti Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
21–17 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 2 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself