Matchup Prediction
Duke
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Duke entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Duke wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Duke wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Duke -2
O/U 55.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Duke
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2022 Schedule
Virginia's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Virginia vs Richmond | -22.5W34–17 | 62.0 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Virginia at Illinois | +4.0L3–24 | 55.0 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Virginia vs Old Dominion | -8.0W16–14 | 52.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Virginia at Syracuse | +9.5L20–22 | 53.5 | L20–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Virginia at Duke | +2.0L17–38 | 55.0 | L17–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Virginia vs Louisville | -1.5L17–34 | 47.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/20 | Virginia at Georgia Tech | +3.5W16–9 | 48.0 | W16–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Virginia vs Miami | +3.0L12–14 | 48.5 | L12–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Virginia vs North Carolina | +7.0L28–31 | 61.5 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Virginia vs Pittsburgh | +5.5L7–37 | 41.5 | L7–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -2.0 | 44.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +1.5 | 40.0 | — | — | — |
Duke 2022 Schedule
Duke's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Duke vs Temple | -9.5W30–0 | 51.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Duke at Northwestern | +10.0W31–23 | 56.5 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Duke vs North Carolina A&T | -30.5W49–20 | 53.0 | W49–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Duke at Kansas | +7.5L27–35 | 66.0 | L27–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Duke vs Virginia | -2.0W38–17 | 55.0 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Duke at Georgia Tech | -3.5L20–23 | 54.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Duke vs North Carolina | +7.0L35–38 | 70.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Duke at Miami | +10.0W45–21 | 59.0 | W45–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/4 | Duke at Boston College | -11.5W38–31 | 47.0 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Duke vs Virginia Tech | -10.0W24–7 | 50.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Duke at Pittsburgh | +6.5L26–28 | 49.0 | L26–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Duke vs Wake Forest | +3.0W34–31 | 67.0 | W34–31 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/28 | Duke vs UCF | -3.5W30–13 | 63.0 | W30–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Duke
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Duke Edge
Duke +1.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Duke Edge
Duke +23.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Duke
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Duke
83.2 — 6.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Duke won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Duke with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 1
#1
Duke
Mike Elko #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kevin Johns
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Smith
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓